Subscriber Q&A - Part 1
Recently I asked all of you for some questions that would cover Forest, football, data & scouting. In part 1, we'll look at Forest-related questions.
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Hi Will, I’d be it interested to understand more about the tactical traits and characteristics that have underpinned Glanser’s previous teams. He seems to get simplistically stereotyped as ‘three at the back, aggressive RWB etc’ but he’s said multiple times already that the formation morphs in the game, and it’s his underlying principles that are fundamental and consistent. What are these?
This is pretty difficult question to answer in only a couple of paragraphs, but I’ll try to use an example from the last pre-season friendly. It looks as though Glasner is going to try and be a little more proactive than how is Palace side was – because of that not only are the wing-backs going to be asked to get through plenty of work, it requires some real intelligence from the wide centre backs too.
What we see as a 3-4-2-1, will at times out of possession look more like 4-3-2-1, a 3-4-3 or even what could be classed as 2-5-3. It really depends on how the opponent is building up and even more importantly where they’re positioning their forward line.
In this example, Forest start with Williams high ready to press the left back, whilst Aina is deeper with the right winger – this is pretty close to a 4-3-2-1, with Abbott narrow but covering Forest’s right flank.
As Sporting progress the ball to the right, and then into their central midfielders, Forest’s own central midfield push, so Abbott needs to push up as well to close down Sporting’s left winger, allowing Williams to stay covering the left back.
Of course this is fairly brave, and if the central midfielder isn’t pressed quickly enough by McAtee in this instance, he’ll be able to turn and play a ball into the space Abbott vacates, giving Milenkovic a tough foot race with the centre forward.
What Glasner is going to demand from his side without the ball is an intelligence that at times Vitor Pereira asked for, but one that this Forest side probably aren’t used to. It’s why the club are seemingly so focussed on Ousmane Diomande, and also why I think Xaver Schlager is a decent bet to be heavily involved in the early stages of the season.
Against Sporting, Forest came up against a back 4, in other games they’ll be facing different formations & different build ups that will require a slightly different plan, and of course many teams at Premier League level will be making their own adjustments during the match that Glasner (and more importantly the players) will need to respond to on the fly.
When Glasner spoke a few weeks ago about non-negotiables, he mentioned that it was a complete requirement that players played for the team, and not for themselves. He also wants players to be willing to make mistakes, rather than playing safe. Under Glasner, players are going to find themselves covering areas that you wouldn’t normally associate with them.
Playing safe in this scenario would be Abbott sitting back, and allowing an easy pass into the inverted left winger - so it was really good to see Abbott put himself into some areas that were probably uncomfortable for him.
For the times when Neco Williams has been deployed down the right, does he improve any better (or worse) compared to his usual deployment down the left?
This is a really interesting question and discussion point - like many I was of the view that Forest would look to recruit a true left-wing back option to allow Neco to move across to the right, where it would seem he’s a perfect fit for what Glasner will want (or at least easily the best fit in the existing squad).
It seems however that the club are comfortable with Williams at left wing back, as they are continually linked to right wing back options. During his time at Forest, Neco has played just under 10,000 Premier League minutes. His share on each wing is pretty similar, with 45% on the right and 55% on the left.
Interestingly, only 3 of his 11 goal involvements have come from when he has been playing on the right. This could suggest that he’s a better performer on the left, but we have to add the context that
Forest have been a very left-side heavy attacking side in the last 3 seasons, and;
Williams has undoubtedly improved as a player during this time where he’s been more regularly used on the left.
In a small sample size of just over 500 minutes at right back last season, compared to over 2,500 at left back, there are some interesting things to look at.
As a right back (red in the above visual), Neco’s slices are mostly larger - meaning he is performing far better against his peers when he’s at right back in a number of key metrics - including almost all the defensive ones, and all of his creative ones too.
Going back to the original question though, and looking at how Forest have performed with him in the difference positions, Neco had an overall negative impact on Forest’s xG Difference when he played at right back, compared to a positive impact when he was on the left.
We can again add further context, where most of his right back minutes were at the early parts of the season when Forest really struggled, but it does suggest that perhaps he’s more comfortable attacking on the right, meaning he was leaving the team a little more open defensively - for example he had the lowest amount of Threat Prevented of all eligible right backs.
You can see from his action areas, that Williams generally was defending higher up the pitch on the right than he was on the left. Pass reception locations remain largely the same, whereas his attacking actions are in more dangerous areas when he’s inverting in the final third from the left.
For me though, I still believe to get the best out of him & the team this season, Forest really need some natural balance on the left. It will be interesting to see if Luca Netz is given a chance in the “first” team in the last few pre-season friendlies, or if Aina gets given more time on the left because ideally I’d like to see Williams start on the right flank.
If Glasner continues to plays McAtee as an 8, is this a viable long term option in his system? Does he profile in a similar way to Wharton, neither seem to be the most physical?
James McAtee is clearly the most interesting player so far this pre-season, he’s made a really good impression in all of his appearances, and visually looks to have bulked up a little bit over the summer too.
From purely a data perspective, it’s really hard to compare McAtee with Wharton, as they’ve mostly played in completely different positions (never mind systems) in recent seasons.
The fairest thing I can do really is look at the small amount of time McAtee played as a defensive midfielder at Sheffield United in 2023/24, in the same system that Glasner played a debuting Adam Wharton in the same system.
The possession metrics, whilst not quite going hand in hand, do have some similarities. It’s in the defensive area though where things are dramatically different - this is quite a shock considering the amount of defending Sheffield United had to do in that season where they were relegated.
The result though probably isn’t so much of a shock, it matches with the overall feeling on McAtee in that the defensive part of his game is his main weakness.
Personally, I don’t doubt McAtee’s willingness to engage and work hard for the team out of possession, that is something you simply have to do to come through Man City’s academy system and play for Guardiola, it’s something you have to do to be given the armband for England U21s.
What I do question though, is his ability to engage & succeed consistently in physical battles. He isn’t blessed with size (neither weight or height), and I worry that he will be dominated too easily by physical midfields.
The question about him having the ability to play a deeper role reminds me of Elliot Anderson’s arrival two summers ago, albeit in a slightly different way. I had concerns on whether Anderson would be able to play for Forest in a midfield two - mainly because he’d never done it before and it is a huge ask to transition into that role as a young player.
Now as we know, I (and many others) were very wrong on this. Anderson very quickly matured into one of the best central midfielders in Europe. He was able to engage in and consistently win physical battles - this is the only part of the game I can’t see McAtee doing on a consistent basis.
Of course there’s every chance I’ll be wrong again, and I truly hope that I am, but for me I don’t see McAtee as a viable long-term option in a deeper midfield role in this system. There will be moments where this will be useful though - when chasing games, or opportunities in home games against midfields that lack physicality. If there’s no further additions to the squad in midfield though, my money would be on Dominguez or Schlager partnering Sangare on opening day.
Morgan Gibbs-White will start, but who do you think suits the other 10 role best? Ndoye, Omari, CHO, McAtee, or even Igor?
This is a very tough question - and a lot of this depends on whether Glasner feels McAtee is capable of starting in one of those deeper midfield roles. We’re only just over half-way through pre-season, but right not I think would be very difficult to leave James McAtee or Igor Jesus out of the starting lineup on opening day.
A lot will also depend on the fitness and form of Chris Wood - if the New Zealander can find his feet after an extended break, then he will be favourite for the starting spot up front. Igor Jesus’ form in pre-season and at the end of last season can’t be ignored and he’d probably be the one next to Gibbs-White in that scenario.
Ndoye is reportedly returning to training this week, Hudson-Odoi hasn’t made an appearance yet in pre-season, and Hutchinson looks to have been ‘demoted’ to the second string following the return of Wood. The person asking the question doesn’t mention Dilane Bakwa or Arnaud Kalimuendo, both of whom have had decent cameos in their short appearances.
Some people are of the view that we’ll see more rotation from Oliver Glasner than Palace fans saw last season - I’m not too sure about that to be honest, but I think the spot next to Gibbs-White is the one that we may see rotate the most, purely becase Forest’s options (if they all remain) all have slightly different skill sets.
If Forest aren’t expecting much possession, perhaps you want Ndoye there as the paciest option in the squad, or Kalimuendo who can really threaten in behind. If you’re up against a back 3, perhaps you want Hutchinson or Bakwa to try and isolate the left-sided centre back. If you’re up against a team where you’re going to have a lot of the ball, perhaps you’re going to want the close control and creativity of McAtee or Hudson-Odoi.
If Glasner doesn’t want to change too much in the final third, perhaps he tries to keep the successful partnership of Wood, Gibbs-White & Igor Jesus that ended the season and guided Forest to safety.
This position is probably the most interesting spot to keep an eye on through the rest of pre-season and in those early weeks. Right now I’d be banking on the trio that ended last season to be starting against Leeds.
What other players (that aren’t on £100k) have a similar profile to Delap?
Delap is a player I hoped Forest targetted last summer with a view to him being the long-term successor to Chris Wood. £30m I thought represented really good value for a young, English player who had hit double figures in a poor side.
Unfortunately, Forest were never going to be able to compete financially with Chelsea - although I’d wager that Delap from a footballing standpoint probably regrets that he made the decision to go to London, even if he did become a World Champion in his first few days at the club!
I still think he’d be a good option for Forest if they were perhaps able to do a loan with an conditional obligation to buy - I can’t imagine Chelsea will be able to seriously demand a figure higher than what they paid for him after his disappointing season, so although it sounds like a lot of money, £30m would still represent good value for me, especially considering the club’s reputation in ‘restoring’ young players who have struggled at bigger clubs.
But the question is around who else might be available with a similar profile, so using my Player Comparison Model (that takes into account playing style - not ability), here’s a couple of options.
Conrad Harder - 21- RB Leipzig
Just 3 goals & 3 assists in 29 appearances doesn’t look like the best return, but in reality, Harder had a really decent debut season for Leipzig, starting only 8 games and playing in less than 1,000 league minutes. Signed from Sporting for a reported €24m last summer, Forest would likely need to be reaching a number similar to Delap’s valuation to do business with a team that will soon be receiving an Elliot Anderson-like fee for Yan Diomande.
A player with experience in a footballing system similar to that of Oliver Glasner’s own coaching experience wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world if Forest wanted to refresh their forward options, but before they could realistically try and attempt a signing like this, the likes of Kalimuendo & Awoniyi would likely need to find new clubs.
Dzenan Pejcinovic - 21 - Wolfsburg
Pejcinovic represents a really interesting option, having had a very similar season for Wolfsburg as Delap did for Ipswich. A year younger than Delap was during his relegation season, Pejcinovic scored 8 goals in 30 appearances (16 starts), representing a goal around every 180 minutes of playing time.
Now facing up to reality of life in the 2. Bundesliga, Wolfsburg may have to see some players leave the club as they’ve already got a net spend of +€20m, very unusual in a post-relegation summer. Pejcinovic offered very little from a creative stand point, but would give Forest a different option up front. He’ll be well known to George Syrianos with Glasner himself likely having some contacts he can depend upon for a reference too.
Wilson Isidor - 25- Sunderland
Haiti international Wilson Isidor is a player Forest reportedly showed an interest in during the January transfer window. He struggled for game time for Sunderland once Brian Brobbey found his form, but still was able to contribute 6 goals in less than 1,200 minutes, a very good return.
Fresh from scoring one of the best goals at the World Cup, I’d imagine Isidor is in a bit of a tough spot at Sunderland. He’ll probably want to move on to get more regular football, but with European football now part of the calendar for the Black Cats, he may see a route to more minutes by staying put, depending on the business Sunderland do during the remainder of the window.
From a Forest point of view, Isidor would provide good depth and probably wouldn’t cost a huge amount in comparison to the other options mentioned here - but I’m not sure why he’d agree to move clubs just to play second or third fiddle somewhere else.
Thanks to everyone for their questions - part 2 of this Q&A will follow later this week, covering questions around data & scouting within football.