Francesco Farioli is a really bright young manager, but it did seem in the first half he seemed very reluctant to change his side’s tactics after dropping Pablo Rosario into their backline, despite facing constant pressure from Forest during the first half

.

At half-time though, he was brave and made 4 chances, completely switching up the game plan. Forest struggled to decipher what Porto were doing with a 3-4-2 formation, where the wider centre backs (particularly Rosario) would step into midfield. Without the ball, Porto would often leave both Moffi & William Gomes high, and despite instructions being bellowed by Vitor Pereira, the players on the pitch for Forest never quite seemed to get the message.

Subscribe now

This first clip, in the 54th minute, shows Vitor Pereira losing his mind at how Forest have left themselves 2 v 2 at the back. What should really be happening here, is the full-back on the side opposite to the ball should be dropping back to support his two centre backs. In this case, it’s Ola Aina who is at fault here, and his manager let’s him know about it.

There’s also some responsibility here on the likes of Ibrahim Sangare & particularly Nicolas Dominguez. Both midfielders are in what we’d say are normal positions considering the game state - the Argentinian checks his shoulder here to scan, and should really spot this potential danger and drop back quicker.

Just a couple of minutes later, and Forest are back in a conventional flat back 4. Jair Cunha looks to push out and prevent a pass to a forward, but doesn’t quite get there in time. Murillo feels he has to come across to help fill the space, which he does quite well - but he & Jair Cunha collide and are both out of position for a quick throw in.

Read more

The Opening Stages

Those of you who have read my initial deep dive on Vitor Pereira when he was appointed will remember that he likes to put 5 players on the front line when building up from the back. This idea creates more space in your own half to help build moves, but also comes with it’s own risks.

With the wing-backs pushing really high, that leaves your 3 centre backs having to cover lots of space inside their own half. Pereira’s principles mean that he wants players to be proactive for the most part, but when your wide centre back pushes almost into the final third and fails to win the ball back - naturally Forest will be left short at the back.

Subscribe now

This first chance for Porto came in the opening minute, and it was a fine save from Ortega that kept the scoreline level. The central midfielders don’t do well here either, with first Yates & then Dominguez failing to track the late runner who eventually takes a poor shot on the rebound.

In this next clip, with the scoreline still 0-0, we see Forest sitting back in a flat 5. This system can be flexible, allowing a wing-back to press high with the rest of the defenders then forming what looks like a conventional back 4.

The system still requires players that remain switched on though, particularly at wing-back and then as the wide centre back. Unless you’re intending to play a low-block, these systems are designed with more attacking-minded wide centre backs, rather than ones that you’d class as defensively solid.

Yates wants to pass his midfield runner on, which would be fine if Forest’s defence are able to shuffle across. But this is when it comes down to personnel - with Pereira consistently rotating in Europe, Forest have the attack-minded Bakwa positioned here essentially as a right back.

He doesn’t have the defensive nous to tuck, when someone like Aina & Williams probably would. That prevents Abbott from shuffling across to deal with the midfield runner quickly, and makes it very easy for Porto to take him out of the play with a quick pass and eventually a poor shot.

Porto’s Opening Goal

Initially in this clip we see some promising work from Forest. It’s so important at this level to press as a team, otherwise you’re often better in staying back and regrouping rather than individuals wasting their energy running out of position.

Here, Forest press really well - firstly with Gibbs-White who follows the ball whilst cutting off passing lanes. He’s joined by McAtee & Wood centrally, with Ndoye, Yates & eventually Bakwa helping too.

Forest eventually turn the ball over after they give the Porto defender nowhere to go - this is the result of a really well formed press, and shows that even when Forest are a little under the cosh they still have the ability to disrupt their opponents.

Bakwa shows some really nice quick footwork and almost plays Chris Wood in behind the defence - unfortunately the pass is overhit, and it’s now when things start to go wrong for Forest.

Read more

• Omari Hutchinson’s weaknesses and inexperience to adjust when Forest don’t have the ball.

• Forest’s centre back pairing of Murillo & Milenkovic not being brave enough to jump out of the line to put pressure on pass receivers.

Whilst John McGinn was arguably Aston Villa’s best player on the day, it was the movement of Morgan Rogers on the other wing that was causing Forest the biggest problems.

Playing narrow from the left flank, he would regularly drop deeper as Lucas Digne would push high on the touchline. Hutchinson wouldn’t go with him, which meant Ola Aina needs to be passive and stay back. This gives Rogers an easy opportunity to receive the ball, turn, and progress the play forwards.

Subscribe now

Forest would experience issues on the other flank too. There’s no doubt that Vitor Pereira for the most part asks his players to be much more proactive when they’ve not got the ball. This relies on players making smart decisions though, and it only takes one player to make the wrong call to give top opponents like Aston Villa the chance to exploit the error.

Hudson-Odoi wants to make something happen, so he eyes up pressing Victor Lindelof. However, Igor Jesus has this passing lane covered, so he needs to react and retreat. Villa then take advantage of the 2 v 1 on Neco Williams, and suddenly have easy possession on the left.

Read more

At just 19 years old, Ryūnosuke Satō is one of the brightest talents the J-League has to offer, and after a great spell on loan in 2025, he’s back at his parent club ready to build on his first full season in senior football, potentially with a view to being part of Japan’s World Cup squad.

The biggest question mark on Satō at this stage of his fledgling career is what position he’ll play in. Last season he split his time playing as a wing-back on either side, but many feel his future perhaps lies in a more central role.

With Fagiano Okayama last season, Satō spent just under 1,200 minutes as a LWB, and just under 900 minutes as a RWB. We can see from his data on both flanks though that his impact & playing style remains fairly consistent regardless of which side of the field he’s situated.

In the early stages of this season he’s spent most of his time on the left flank with FC Tokyo, so it’s that side of the pitch we’ll concentrate on here.

Subscribe now

His data profile suggests Satō was a wing-back that threatens the opposition box, with a work rate that allows him to participate at both ends of the pitch. This is shown most obviously when looking at his Successful Defensive Actions per 90, where he ranked in the 95th percentile last season.

What I speak about above translates perfectly into this visual - his attacking events are narrower than you would expect a traditional wing-back to be, his pass reception locations are generally very high up the field, and he has a significant amount of defensive actions inside his own final third.

Like most young players - especially ones with an attacking profile like Satō - his main weakness defensively is his success rate in duels. Despite having lots of successful defensive actions, his tackle success is just 50% overall. Combine this with aerial duels (he’s only 5”7), and his duel success is just 40.7% when wide on the left.

The biggest difference between Satō’s profile on the left and the right, is his ability to progress the ball. His ball carrying numbers remain high from both sides (although are higher on the left), but as a right footer when he’s playing on the left he finds it much easier to find good passing angles to progress the ball into more dangerous areas.

Share

If you gave Satō the ball on the left last season, he might pass the ball backwards on occasion, or more likely sideways - but if you allow him to carry the ball from within the middle third then he will pretty much always carry it forward.

Only 2 players at left-wing back had more Progressive Carries per 90 than Satō last season, and only 3 had more net Carrying Yards per 90. These are great numbers for someone so young, and go a long way to explain why there’s such a buzz about him and also why he’s already got 5 senior caps for his country.

The last visual to look at shows where he’s having the greatest impact for his team compared to his peers at left wing-back. His poor defensive duel success means there’s a lot of light red in his own final third - but ahead of that in the opposition half it looks very positive.

With time this could of course change, Satō is essentially only 1 year into his senior career and at 19 still has a lot of growing to do both physically and mentally. But it also explains why, as mentioned above, some feel his future may best lie centrally and/or higher up the field.

In fact he has been doing just that for FC Tokyo in the early stages of this season, playing mostly on the left of midfield in a 4-4-2 system. This comes after an encouraging AFC U23 Championships with Japan in January where he notched 3 goals and 2 assists playing as the number 10 in a 4-2-3-1.

Subscribe now

Clips & Highlights

In a recent game against Yokohama F Marinos, Sato scored his first goal for FC Tokyo in a first half that blew away the opposition. Throughout the game he pressed with intensity, this lead to him deflecting a pass that gained his side possession of the ball.

Sato then maintains his wide position, making himself available for a ball down the left. It looks a little awkward but he manages to control the ball before confidently cutting inside onto his right foot. He strikes the ball well through the defenders legs and aims for the near side of the goal - the goalkeeper although perhaps unsighted, should do better. Either way, Sato scored a nice goal that was reward for his good initial work.

It was noticeable in the game that Sato was able to pop up in central areas despite playing on the left wing. This happened a lot more in the second half - for a 19 year old he showed some really intelligent moments where he would drop into good spaces to receive the ball, but before doing so he’d regularly check his shoulders for opponents and passing options.

Physically, for me he fights above his size, although because he’s quite small in stature and still so young he can be physically overpowered at times. This can come with time and experience though. The above video shows each of his actions in the 3-0 victory, before being subbed off in the 2nd half.

This highlights video is from last year, where he played as an 18 year old for Fagiano Okayama. Throughout he shows some really good touches and moments, and an awareness that many his age just do not show.

Final Thoughts

Last year was Sato’s breakthrough, in his first full season as a senior pro with significant playing time, he was the Young Player of the Month twice and eventually the overall J-League Young Player of the Year. This led to him breaking into the senior national side in June 2025, and he now has 5 caps to his name.

Sato will be hoping to make the final World Cup squad for Japan this summer, he has a great chance of doing so despite not turning 20 until October. It might not be a tournament where he truly announces himself though, but it’s still an opportunity to put himself on the radar of clubs across Europe.

He still has a lot of growing to both in mind and body. There’s moments where he uses his body well to protect the ball against stronger opponents, but others where he will still be overpowered. This I feel is what could put some teams in the ‘bigger’ leagues from going for him.

Despite playing mostly in wide areas, there are some who feel Sato’s long-term future could be in a more central position - including respected Japanese football writer Ryo Nakagawara, who wrote a great article on Sato on his Substack back in December.

I can definitely see why he thinks that, particularly when we look at those clips above where he shows his ability to drop into those central space to receive passes with his back to defenders. The Japan set up have already utilised him in central areas in the youth teams.

I do wonder though if his intensity in the press (at least at this stage) could mean he would be a bit of a risk playing deeper in a midfield pair though, as he will often leave space in behind him when pressing quick & high - this is something better opponents will expose.

For now, I expect to see Sato remain playing in wider areas where he can continue to gain valuable playing experience at a decent level and in familiar surroundings. It’s possible that any positional change might not come until he makes the next move in his career, which could very well be to a European league.

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

In just under 600 minutes as a left-winger, Mofokeng has scored 3 and assisted 3. His productivity from that initial starting position has been tremendous, and he leads all players in so many key metrics, including my Player Impact metric.

Mofokeng’s data profile across all creative metrics is phenomenal, no left winger has more Expected Assists or created more chances than he has. He also ranks 1st for Successful Attacking Actions.

Subscribe now

It therefore comes as no surprise to see his Position Profile point heavily toward creation. He still though offers a huge scoring threat too, and despite all of his attacking instincts, still racks up plenty of defensive actions too.

It’s going to be an interesting international break for Mofokeng, who as we can see from the above visual likes to do the majority of his attacking work in and around the box. Even when played as a left winger, he’s not someone who will hog the touchline, instead he wants to try and dictate the play in more central areas.

South Africa head coach Hugo Broos has already stated that Mofokeng will get playing time as a traditional Number 10 in this international break - as the national side look to see whether they can make the most of his talents ahead of the World Cup where they’ll take on Mexico, South Korea and the winner of the one of UEFA’s World Cup Playoffs.

Getting him in those central areas will put him in the positions where he does the most damage to the opposition. All but one of his open play shot assists this season have come from within the width of the box.

Mofokeng isn’t a prolific ball carrier, so for South Africa if they are to use him in an important role this summer they’ll need to make sure they surround him with the right supporting cast.

We can see from his Pitch Impact visual where Mofokeng has been most dangerous this season - it’s those left-central areas inside the final third. Although we’ve seen he can help out defensively, a lot of this work is related to ball recoveries rather than winning defensive duels, hence the patches of red inside his own half.

Subscribe now

Clips & Highlights

A few weeks ago back in February Mofokeng put on a great performance for Orlando Pirates against Marumo Gallants, setting up one goal (with 5 other chances created), and scoring one himself too.

For his assist, notice how he waits for a team mate to drop deep before he continues to move across the field from his initial position on the left wing. His curved run behind the defence into loads of space is really intelligent, and it’s a relatively easy pass across the goal for him to make to help give his side the lead.

For his goal, Mofokeng shows great patience coming in from the left once again. He fakes the shot on multiple occasions to freeze defenders, before eventually dinking the ball into the top corner on the third ‘attempt’. He’s so confident with the ball at his feet and a very clever player, but of course as standards of defending increase he may not find things as easy as he does here.

When we look at him playing at a higher level (video below is every action made in the African Nations Cup Round of 16 match for South Africa against Cameroon in January), we see a player that at times is struggling a little with the far higher standard of play.

As the game went on - and as Cameroon were able to sit back more with an increasing lead - Mofokeng did find things more difficult in the game to create. He had one nice moment in the second half where he carried the ball well centrally toward the box, winning a free kick, but otherwise struggled to get involved in the second half before being substituted.

But despite that, there’s still some really positive moments there where he’s making good reverse or first time passes to fool defenders, in what was essentially the biggest game of his career. It’s why South Africa are looking to get the most out of him in this international break ahead of the World Cup - having someone with this much talent gives them a great chance of getting some positive results this summer.

Final Thoughts

As mentioned earlier on, there’s not really any form of pipeline of talent from South Africa to Europe - instead there’s been a few players in recent seasons that have actually made the move over to the MLS. Because of the lack of a track record in the league exporting talent, it does mean that transfer fees aren’t massive - the record fee for an Under-23 player is only €2.5m.

This would make a potential deal for a player like Mofokeng relatively low-risk in terms of outlay, which is why I think he would appeal to European teams in countries like Greece, Belgium & The Netherlands, as well as Scandinavian countries too.

Unfortunately, Mofokeng’s lack of size (he’s only around 5”5) means I think he would struggle at the highest level. I don’t think he’d ever be a fit for English football - but he does have undeniable talent and can definitely carve out a fine career for himself on a much bigger stage. He’ll be hopeful that this summer’s World Cup puts him in the shop window for a good move in 2026.

Share

Mohammed officially joined Elfsborg in April 2024, following a short trial period in the previous year where he played and trained in the academy set up. Standing at around 6”3, he joined from Ghanaian side Inter Allies FC - a club that has had 6 full Ghana internationals pass through its system before they joined European sides.

After a season playing with their Elfsborg’s reserve side, in 2025 he joined relegation threatened Varnamo on a loan deal that eventually was extended to last the whole season. It’s during this spell that he started to show his potential, standing out in a struggling side.

Mohammed had to get through plenty of work in his debut season as a senior player, but his data profile is incredibly strong across almost every area when compared against other centre backs in the Swedish top flight.

Using my Player Impact Model, Mohammed ranked as the best centre back in the division. Whilst the model is heavily weighted toward an individual’s actions, it does take into account goals conceded & clean sheets - both statistics that Varnamo really struggled with. They conceded a league high 69 goals in 30 games, with just 5 clean sheets.

Subscribe now

He played a part in 16 of their 30 league games, having been left on the bench or out of the squad completely for the first 12. After getting into the side, Mohammed only missed 2 games, both through suspension. Varnamo took a total of 6 points in the 14 games that Mohammed missed, but gained 10 in the 16 where he played.

As a right footer, he prefers to play on the right of the central defence, and will happily receive passes inside his own half. Varnamo were a fairly direct side, and had a low overall pass completion of less than 80%. We saw from Mohammed’s own data profile that his pass completion is low, but he would look to progress the ball forward more than any other centre back in the league.

Defensively, mainly due to the large amounts of defending that Varnamo had to do, most of his defensive actions are heavily concentrated in and around his own penalty spot.

What’s really encouraging about this data though, is the overall success rate he has in duels. Mohammed is much more comfortable dealing with attackers aerially than on the ground, but his overall rates here in every area of the pitch are all higher than the CB average - including a 65.5% duel success rate in his own penalty box.

Looking again at ball progression, we can see that inside his own half Mohammed will generally always look to play forward, especially with his passes. There’s practically no backward passes here, again reenforcing what we can already see from his data profile.

Couple this with his progressive & creative actions visual above, and it’s fairly easy to see that when he receives the ball in his own half on the right side of the field, he’ll regularly look to progress forward either with passes through the lines, or with longer passes down the right channel.

With all of this data, it should therefore come as little surprise to see that Mohammed ranked as the strongest box-defender in the Allsvenskan last season. There’s a lot of heavily-shaded green in his own area, as well as some lighter patches as we move further up the field - which suggests to me that he would have even more to offer in a better side.

This is something we’ll get to see this season as he’s now a part of Elfsborg’s first team set-up, and has played a part in their early-season cup fixtures, scoring 1 in his 3 appearances.

Subscribe now

Clips & Highlights

Unfortunately, it’s fairly difficult bordering on impossible to get hold of full matches where Mohammed has taken part, so we have to make do with some highlight packages. I’d never suggest basing an opinion on a player purely on this kind of footage, but what this can do is provide some examples of things Mohammed does really well - actions that match what we’ve already seen with his data profile.

The above clip shows some of Mohammed’s highlights at Varnamo last season. Here we see a player that

• Can read the game intelligently

• Is more than happy to step out of defence with the ball

• Has the ability to pass through the lines to the feet of midfielders & attackers

• Is strong in the air

Remember though of course, naturally these are highlights and do not include any mistakes he may have made throughout the season. As a 19 year old in all these clips, there will definitely have been mistakes and he’ll have plenty of areas where he can grow.

This clip from his recent game for Elfsborg is a great example of a young defender who despite having lots of encouraging attributes, still has some clear improvements to make. Here, he isn’t aware enough of what’s behind him, as he only checks his shoulder the once.

As the attacker moves into the box, Mohammed is way too close to his goalkeeper and not in a position where he’s really helping anybody. If he’s had an extra look or two behind him, he’d be able to adjust his position accordingly. The line is fine, but he needs to be a yard or two higher, and he’d easily cut out the pull back for the goal.

These two clips show Mohammed’s range of passing, and that he does possess the ability to move into the right position to affect opposition attacks. The first clip is a lovely weighted pass over the midfield and in between defenders.

The second shows him in his zonal marking role from a corner, as he then reacts to the ball going over him to get back into a good position to block a goalbound shot. It’s encouraging that this clip comes after his positioning error for the first goal - it shows the ability & intelligence is there, just not the consistency, unsurprising for someone so inexperienced and young.

The final clip here shows Rufai Mohammed’s goal in the second half. He smartly peals off to the back post where he knows he has an aerial mismatch with the remaining zonal marker from the corner.

He then shows good timing with his run, and great bravery to put his head on the cross and score the goal that gave Elfsborg hope in the game with 20 minutes to go.

Final Thoughts

There are clearly many talented players in Africa, and plenty of Scandinavian clubs have recently been creating pathways for them to find their way into senior European football.

Mohammed has really been helped by Elfsborg, firstly with a nice bedding in period with their youth & academy sides, then by a senior loan at a good level with a team in Varnamo that had to battle hard for every point.

Now, he’s back at his parent club with a chance to help them potentially qualify for Europe this season. He has very recently signed an extension to his contract, so he’s now committed to the club until the end of 2029. But there will be scouts & clubs already aware of him and monitoring him closely ahead of the summer transfer window.

Leave a comment

Share

As it turned out, the 19-year old had very little to do defensively, but dealt with everything that came his way with confidence and assurance. For me in previous appearances, it’s not just that it didn’t look like he belonged, it didn’t look like he felt he belonged either.

Subscribe now

His performance felt like the true arrival of a young player in the first-team squad - and it’s not a surprise that perhaps it took him being used in his favoured position for the first time since August 2024.

We can see from Abbott’s action map that he only had one defensive action in his own box in the entire 120 minutes of the match - that shows up how well Forest defended in general, but also is a result of the calmness & composure shown by the back 3.

Read more

At Wolves when playing with a back 3, as I mentioned in my deep dive on him when he was appointed, when they would build up from the back Pereira would push his wing backs very high and wide, essentially creating a front 5 spread all across the pitch.

On Thursday night though we saw some variations of this for the first time since he stepped into the Forest dugout. Igor Jesus has spent most of his Forest career literally being the most isolated striker in the Premier League, but this tweak means he was surrounded by team mates.

When Forest had a goal kick, both wing backs would move very narrow into the centre circle, joining Hutchinson, Gibbs-White & Igor Jesus. Pereira identified Midjytlland would likely go man-for-man, so this tactic creates a lot of space in wide areas.

That space was particularly evident on the left, as Nikola Milenkovic would push up really high on the right (something we’ll get on to later). This tactic also involves some pretty interesting rotations in movement.

Murillo is with Sels in the box, Forest then have essentially a back 3 made up of Dominguez, Anderson & Morato, all of whom would be trusted to play out from the back if the moment allows. Aina & Hudson-Odoi almost become central midfielders & Milenkovic is a right wing back. These movements cause problems for defences as they sometimes aren’t sure whether to pass on a player or mark them all over the pitch.

What this can also do, is give Forest a much better chance of winning second balls. By spreading out the distance between the lines of Midjyttland, and coupling that with having a 5 v 5 battle in the opposition half, Forest are far more likely to pick up cleared headers or flick ons. This initially was a strength for Forest under Dyche, but as time went on and teams became familiar with Dyche’s one-dimensional plan, Forest became very easy to defend.

The other plan that we often saw put into action, was Milenkovic moving forward very high down the right flank - again exposing Midjytlland’s man marking system. Omari Hutchinson was key here, he would drop deep, sometimes as far as a right back position, where one of the opposition back 5 would follow him.

Milenkovic would then stroll forward, with Midjytlland’s wide player not following him. Because Forest were so often trying to progress down the left with Anderson, Gibbs-White & Hudson-Odoi, the Danish side were heavily overloaded on that flank. So much so that Aina was effectively able to move into a centre forward position with Igor Jesus smartly dropping deep.

Sels was able to pick out Milenkovic with a good long ball, but unfortunately Aina & the Serbian were unable to take advantage of the 2 v 1 and couldn’t create a decent chance. This again is something we never really saw under Dyche - this is a freedom of movement for players regardless of their initial position.

Subscribe now

It does however come with some risks. The biggest one for me is where Hutchinson is asked to drop deep and sometimes get involved in build-up in his own final third. He’s not strong enough to withstand pressure from defenders on his shoulder, and naturally with his playing style anyway he’s prone to turnovers. This can cause big issues when the 2 defenders on the right side have pushed up higher ahead of him.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

Vitor Pereira has shown in his short spell in charge that he’s not afraid to completely drop players if he feels they aren’t performing on the field or on the training ground. With Jair Cunha potentially out injured for a long period of time, and Morato being Morato, I do wonder whether we’ll see much more of the back 5 system - especially when Forest have shown some decent performances in a back 4 (Fenerbahce & Liverpool).

If Pereira really wants to stick with the back 5, then something like the above could be close to what we’ll see. Neco Williams came on at half-time on Thursday and essentially played hybrid LCB/LWB role with Hudson-Odoi playing very high. By bringing in Luca Netz as the LWB, Hudson-Odoi can start on the bench & Williams could swap to RCB.

Basically I’m trying to find a way to play the same system without Morato in the starting lineup. Aina of course made a big mistake on Thursday night, and often looks very tired late in games. So perhaps he would come out of the squad and Williams would play as the RWB. Pereira could of course go with Bakwa in that position, but Forest definitely couldn’t rely on him to be responsible at either end of the pitch as he continues to struggle with just short cameos off the bench.

If Pereira feels Aina isn’t ready to start this game, then I feel this is probably very close to what we’ll see this afternoon. Netz would come in at left back, with Williams moving over to the right. Having Harry Wilson to deal with would be a tough assignment, but I’ve watched Netz play well against Olise when his Mönchengladbach side were actually down to 10 men, so I’m sure he’d feel relatively confident if given the assignment.

Subscribe now

Share

Sorry to remind everyone, but below are the clips of each shot by Forest’s Danish opponents. There’s nothing fancy in these clips, just some good old-fashioned set pieces that Mikel Arteta & Nicolas Jover would be proud of. Forest simply have to defend these situations much better across the next two games.

On the bright side, I think a two-legged game against opponents like this is much more beneficial to Forest than a one-match shootout. As bad as Forest’s defending was on that night, they could and perhaps should have scored more goals - you’d hope over 2 games that Forest’s quality ‘should’ see them through.

What Does The Data Say?

It will come as no surprise to anybody ahead of tomorrow night that Midtjylland are one of the strongest set piece teams in Europe. But what’s interesting is their reliance on set pieces in the domestic game is nowhere near as high as it is in European encounters.

23.72% of Midtjylland’s expected goals come from set piece situations - this ranks 2nd in the Danish top flight. The actual figure though, of 10.25, is the highest in the league by over 1.5. Remember that domestically Midtjylland are one of the strongest teams, so they’re able to impose their quality on opponents much easier than in Europe. Therefore their reliance on set pieces, whilst high, is nowhere near has large as it is on the continental stage.

A good comparison here is with Arsenal, who’s percentage of xG from set piece situations is 30.19%, ranking 6th in the Premier League. Forest’s figure is 19.99%, ranking 17th.

If we look just at shot attempts, Midtjylland do rank 1st in Danish top flight - with 31.88% of their total shot attempts coming from set piece situations. This is similar to that of Arsenal (30.95%). It points toward a team that still creates heavily from set pieces, but unsurprisingly finds it much easier to create high quality chances from open play when facing Danish opposition.

Domestically at least, Midtjylland’s goal return from set pieces is actually pretty low compared to others in their league, with 19.30% of their goals coming from set pieces so far this season.

Subscribe now

What’s really interesting here though, is the kind of set piece they’ve been having the most success with. Despite the share only ranking 4th, they’ve still scored 11 set piece goals in the league, which is 3 higher than the next best team. The big difference? 6 of those goals have come from throw-ins, that’s 1 more than the rest of the Danish Superliga combined!

If we switch it up a little and just look at their Europa League data (from the League Phase onward), this is where Midtjylland really start to try and press their advantage over other teams. They don’t have the resources and financial backing of many of their competitors in Europe, so instead they focus on their strengths - it’s clear that it’s brought them plenty of success in their European campaign.

Set pieces make up a massive 45.84% of Midtjylland’s total expected goals. This figure is 6.26 xG, ranking 2nd of all 36 teams that made the League Phase. The team in 1st place? Well, surprisingly it’s actually our very own Nottingham Forest, with a figure of 6.53 (representing 30.40% of xG) - but remember, Forest have played 2 extra games in the competition.

It’s a similar story if we look at shot attempts too - 40.21% of Midtjylland’s shots come from set piece situations. They’ve generated 9 shots from throw-ins, ranking 2nd in the competition. Forest’s figure here is 31.10%.

Digging a little deeper here specifically into corners, Midtjylland have created a shot from 47.6% of their corners - Forest on the other hand can beat that with a figure of 55.6%. What this suggests is that Forest can put a couple of decent routines together (and perhaps more importantly defend much better than they did in October), they might actually be able to beat Midtjylland at their own game!

The only one of these metrics that Midtjylland do not lead in, is the percentage of goal from set pieces. The only reason why is that they are beaten by Maccabi Tel Aviv - who scored 50% of their grand total of just 4 goals from set pieces.

Share

In reality, Midtjylland’s 8 goals from set pieces is the most in the Europa League Proper this season, 2 more than the next best team (Celtic), and 3 more than Forest’s 5.

In summary, it’s clear Forest simply have to defend set piece situations better than they did in October, and better than they have done in general this season.

In this respect the mandated return of Sels to the squad is a little bit of a worry, as statistically he is one of the worst goalkeepers in set piece situations in the Premier League since Forest were promoted. Sels only attempts to intervene 16% of the time when a cross enters a catchable/punchable zone - and even then his success rate is a very low 69%.

For this reason, Forest’s defenders really need to take it upon themselves to defend these situations. It’s why I suggested on the Forest Focus podcast after the Brighton game that Forest may look to move to a back 5 for the extra height that would give them to defend these exact situations.

Whilst I think ideally we’d see Forest play in a 4-2-3-1 and try to impose Pereira’s more fluid playing style on an opponent they should get the better of, I fear Forest are still pretty fragile mentally especially when they suffer setbacks in front of a nervy home crowd. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pereira stick with a back 5 and allow Jair Cunha to continue his recent good form if he is deemed fit enough.

Leave a comment

His appearance against Man City on Wednesday night increased Domínguez’s total Premier League minutes to 4,557, the equivalent of just over 50 full matches. He has spent just over half that time (2,359 minutes) playing in a midfield 2, pretty evenly split between playing on the left and right of centre.

Playing in a midfield pair was his most common position at Bologna too, but often in a Forest shirt I feel we’ve seen his best moments come when he’s used in different positions.

Since he’s joined we’ve seen him put in some great, hard-working performances all across the midfield, including at Anfield earlier this season on the left-wing. On Wednesday though, with Forest in what can most easily be described as a 5-3-2 (or perhaps 5-3-1-1) formation, Domínguez was asked to sit to the right of Ibrahim Sangaré.

If Forest were playing against a side with ‘traditional’ wingers and full backs, then Domínguez would have been asked to do a lot more work out wide (as we’ve seen previously when he’s been used on the wing), but because Man City’s width was provided by their full backs, he was able to concentrate on defending the width of the penalty box in Forest’s half.

Read more

Firstly, he was left out of the Europa League squad, essentially so that Willy Boly could be a part of the 22 - Boly only made the one European appearance, an injury time sub away at Betis in September. At the time although disappointed with the club’s decision, it was at least understandable.

However, in hindsight it was clearly the wrong call, and Jair Cunha has suffered in a similar way that Andrew Omobamidele did when he joined the club from Norwich in 2023 - when he was signed on deadline day but didn’t make his debut until the following January.

Jair Cunha’s patience was finally rewarded on Thursday night, with his first Europa League appearance against Fenerbahce. He did give away a penalty at the start of the second half, that although ‘soft’ was probably the right call, but otherwise I felt he performed really well and showed why he was so highly rated in Brazil.

Subscribe now

Playing as the right centre back in a back 4 (his preferred position), Jair Cunha was calm throughout the game against Fenerbahce, and did showed some great examples of defending that you wouldn’t always expect from someone of his age (20) and lack of high level experience (just 6 months in the Brazilian top flight and a Club World Cup).

The clip below shows a moment from the game on Thursday that makes me really optimistic about Jair Cunha’s future & potential, even if it was actually Fenerbahce’s first goal. With his partner Morato jumping high and getting bypassed easily, Jair Cunha is really left on a bit of an island at the back, facing a 2 v 1.

Read more

In both games, Forest opt for a very common tactic from kick-offs, going back to the keeper and asking him to hit a long ball to the forward. The intention here is to at worst gain a second ball high up.

The biggest difference though? The numbers in the forward line. Forest lose first contact on both occasions, but on Thursday night you can see immediately Forest push men forward and have at one point 6 men on the forward line.

Compare that to Dyche’s final game against Wolves, and Forest at most have 3 there, often just 2. Eventually as the first minute ends against Wolves, Aina goes for a low percentage channel ball that he doesn’t get right.

In Istanbul, Pereira gave Forest’s players the freedom to go forward, trust their own abilities and play the opposition, rather than stick to a rigid plan. This worked wonders throughout the game as we’ll see in these clips.

Read more

Forest will be Pereira’s 15th job as a manager or head coach at his 14th different team (he’s had two spells at Forest’s next opponent Fenerbache). Pereira started his managerial career in his native Portugal, with roles moving up the leagues at clubs like Sanjoanense, Espinho, Santa Clara & eventually Porto (after a couple of spells as head coach of their junior sides).

His career went on to take him to numerous countries and continents, with spells in Saudi Arabia, Greece (with a successful short spell under Evangelos Marinakis), Turkey, Germany, China & Brazil.

Short spells at clubs seems to be the key trend for Pereira, something that is probably quite appealing from a Forest point of view on this occasion. The other appealing thing, Pereira has a win rate of over 40% in all but 3 of his 15 jobs.

Tactical Flexibility

Vitor Pereira quite clearly is a coach with a tremendous amount of experience in various different football climates. He’s shown a great deal of flexibility in how he sets his teams up, both in playing style and in formation. Therefore it’s pretty difficult to predict confidently how he’s going to set up this Forest side.

In his most recent spell in football at Wolves, he came in and stuck pretty rigidly with a 3-4-2-1 formation. It was only in the early stages of this season that he veered away from that, but we’ll get onto his spell at Wolves later.

Overall in European football, Pereira’s most favoured formation has been a 4-2-3-1, essentially the same formation Forest have set up in throughout the last 18 months. Over in Asia & in South America, he preferred to use a 4-3-3.

One of my biggest gripes with Sean Dyche’s management of Forest was his lack of changes both in game and from week to week. Pereira’s CV suggests he’s very comfortable coaching very different formations, so I’d expect him to try and adapt to what he feels best suits the players, rather than trying to go with his own style (like Dyche & Postecoglou), who didn’t seem to worry about the existing strengths of the squad.

What Does Pereira Do When Appointed Mid-Season?

Pereira’s appointment by Marinakis to Olympiacos in January 2015 was his first where he took over a side during an ongoing campaign. He had a very successful short spell in Piraeus, leading his side to a league & cup double.

Since then, he’s had another 4 mid-season appointments, and on each occasion has always returned at least one point per game in his first 10 matches in charge.

Read more

Those who were with me at Craven Cottage will attest how disappointed I was with Forest’s first half performance. Fulham were absolutely there for the taking, with a win Forest would’ve moved 8 points clear of relegation up into 15th and ahead of Fulham.

What I saw in that first half was so incredibly poor - just 6 shots despite plenty of possession. It was then capped off by a silly penalty given away by Douglas Luiz, and Forest going into the break down a goal. All they could then muster in the second half was 2 shots on target, both from outside the box - and no shots at all in the final half an hour of the game.

This was the beginning of a 4 match losing run, with the only bright performance being a spirited effort at home against Manchester City that arguably deserved more. Perhaps Forest were unlucky with a couple of decisions by the officials that day, but Dyche’s comments post match started to grate on me more and more after that game.

The Performances

My biggest issue with Forest under Dyche was the level of performances from week to week that could only resemble a rollercoaster. Not only that, but you could pretty much tell within the first 15 minutes or so what kind of game you were in for. Just a couple of days ago I spoke about the lack of changes Dyche would make in-game, you just knew nothing would change as the game went on.

This trait is arguably fine when things are working - but unfortunately we mostly saw the ‘plan’ not work the majority of the time. Every time it looked like Forest had a massive opportunity to really put a gap between themselves and the relegation zone, they always dropped an absolute stinker of a performance, that Dyche always failed to change. Forest under Dyche were consistently inconsistent.

So I thought back and tried to remember some of the worst performances I’ve seen from Forest since promotion. Hand on heart I put at least 5 games under Dyche in the ‘Top’ 10 worst performances. That’s a terrible record when you think he’s only had 25 games in the dug out.

In that previous article I looked at the time Forest spent behind in games. The draw last night actually swung things in Dyche’s favour - just. Under Dyche Forest were trailing in games for 32.29% of the time, only slightly better than the 31.20% before he was appointed. He only increased the time spent winning by 2% too. The underlying numbers & the eye test both told a very bad story.

Subscribe now

Passing The Blame

I’m a big believer in focussing on what you can control - Forest (and their opponents) cannot control refereeing decisions, all you can do is try to play well enough to overcome them when they’re not going your way, or be in a position to benefit when they do.

Some of the soundbites that Dyche would come out with post match were just not what I wanted to hear from my club’s manager. Yes, managers are often asked their opinion on these sometimes controversial incidents, but how they answer them can really change how everybody views them.

To me at least, Dyche would often use questionable refereeing incidents to overshadow Forest’s own poor performances, and more importantly his own mistakes. He claimed Man City’s winning goal should’ve been disallowed (it shouldn’t), he claimed Fulham’s penalty was ‘soft’ (it was a clear penalty). I’m sure there’s others I’m missing too.

These were just two examples that to me reenforce the wrong mentality in to the squad, a mentality that makes players and teams easily frustrated when the slightest decision doesn’t go their way. Perhaps he was trying to instil that ‘us against them mentality’, but other parts of his management were never going to allow that to happen. Instead, you could even argue this came to an ugly head when Elliot Anderson gets a red card for saying something he shouldn’t have to a referee.

Dyche would also countenance these dreadful performances with more wild comments to the press. He would proudly state “if we win the next one then that’s 11 points from 7 games” - very conveniently ignoring that he’d lead Forest to an embarrassing night in Braga & a ridiculous performance at Wrexham during that time frame, whilst also not mentioning that Forest had lost the previous 4 league games too.

He even started to mention the crowd more often too especially toward the end, before trying to assert that he wasn’t questioning the crowd despite him bringing the crowd up in the first place. Combine that with his public comments on the fringe players, and it was clear that his tenure would be over the day after the season finished at the absolute latest.

Creating a ‘Team’

So much has been said about Forest’s recruitment from the summer, and at some point I’ll dig into it even more. It’s definitely fair to say that we should be disappointed with the majority of the players that have come in - the performances just haven’t been up to scratch and that hasn’t helped the team at all.

Forest recruited heavily in the summer with a view to changing the playing style of the club, moving away from the defence-first, transition-second style that was very successful until the last 8 games or so of last season. These players were brought in, in my mind at least, to play in a more controlled, possession heavy style. We saw the beginnings of this on the opening day.

Where the players have obviously struggled since is the multitude of different voices on the training ground. Nuno would have had his own ideas, Postecoglou then arrives, trying to implement a completely new style on the fly- and then in an early hail-mary Forest appointed Dyche.

This playing style for want of a better phrase “regressed” even further to something even less expansive than what we had last season. The new players just weren’t brought in for this football, and it shows.

We’ve heard a lot in the past around how Dyche only played the way he did, because that’s all he really had available to him. He has absolutely eroded any thoughts that he’d be able to implement a more expressive and attacking style.

And this is where I come back to the “creating a team”, and the “us against them” mentality I mentioned earlier. It is impossible for a manager to do those things when you

• Do not use new players in their best positions (Bakwa sparingly at LW, McAtee CM, Ndoye CF), or play existing players who are not up to standard (Abbott) over new, vastly more experienced signings (Netz). The lack of minutes for Jair Cunha is also baffling.

• Throw your depth players under the bus when they perform poorly in their incorrect positions (Wrexham & Braga).

• Refuse to reward good performances by fringe players with cameos off the bench in games that are either done as a contest, or need chasing.

What must James McAtee be thinking after his impressive performance against Ferencvaros? He hasn’t made a Premier League appearance since Aston Villa on the 3rd of January. That’s 6 consecutive games (including 2 when he was definitely needed) where he hasn’t seen the field. You can’t bring these players along with you when you don’t reward them.

The lack of use of the fringe players will not have sat well with Marinakis who sanctioned such heavy spending - with the idea of not only improving Forest’s squad, but also improving the balance sheet in future seasons too. It would not have sat well with squad either, the majority of whom could never see a possible route into the first team no matter what they did on the training pitch, or on a match day.

Subscribe now

The Positives

Yes, there were some! I think we were all very surprised when Forest bettered last season’s fantastic win at Anfield with a comfortable 3-0 win early in Dyche’s tenure. The team were absolutely buzzing that day and it was one of the best days Forest have had since promotion.

Personally, I will never forget Dyche’s first game against Porto. I’d always hoped and dreamed I’d get to see my team play and win in Europe, yet never really thought it would happen. Dyche didn’t get us there, and even though he likely had little impact in a tactical plan in that game, he was the man to lead Forest to their first European win in my footballing lifetime. To have Ian Woan & Steve Stone involved too made it all the sweeter.

There’s absolutely no doubt that Forest are in a significantly better position now than they were when Dyche was appointed. 7 games without a win, only 5 points on the board, and just 1 point from 2 Europa League games. Forest are now 3 points clear, and qualified easily for the play-off round (even though it arguably should’ve been a top 8 finish).

A lot of the noise around the club especially on social media has been pretty frustrating - everybody wants what is best for the club but it really seems Dyche has split the fanbase, even more so than after Nuno’s departure earlier in the season.

Hopefully this decision gives Forest and the fanbase a chance for another(!) reset ahead of a run of challenging but very important fixtures.

Share

The lack of changes by Dyche then looked even worse as Forest conceded the 3rd goal that effectively killed the contest just 4 minutes into the second half. Changes then did come, but it was too little too late.

You can imagine my surprise then when I looked at the data and saw that no team has made more half-time changes than Nottingham Forest’s 12 since Sean Dyche took over. Now there’s two ways you can look at this, you can either say “well, Dyche is being proactive and trying to turn games around”, or you can come at it from the other angle and say “why are Forest having to make so many half-time changes so often?”.

Subscribe now

If we look at the 12 changes, only 2 of them were injury enforced (at least were reported as such). These were both in the recent Crystal Palace game, where Sels & Hudson-Odoi came of injured. The other 10 (which would still put Forest in a tie for 1st place with Chelsea), all came in games where Forest had already fallen behind off the back of very poor first-half performances.

Read more

Most of Netz’s game time this season has come as a left wing back in a defensive back 5 system, but the split between that position and the LB role that Forest tend to use is around 65/35 in this campaign - with the share being much closer in the last 3 seasons.

Subscribe now

Netz’s data profile suggests he is able to get into some very good positions to make some very valuable defensive contributions - with a Threat Prevented percentile ranking of 83. No LWB in the Bundesliga has blocked more shots per 90 than Netz either.

Read more

Ortega has lacked consistent first team football, understandably when your team mates in goal include Ederson & Gianluigi Donnarumma, but he has made 56 appearances for Man City since joining on a free transfer in 2022, including 25 in the Premier League that we’ll be focussing on here.

Command of Area

One of the reasons I feel Dyche isn’t completely sold on Sels as his first choice, is his clear weakness to command his box. He looks reluctant to come out and claim or punch crosses, and doesn’t look too confident when doing so. You can use publicly available data like ‘Claims per 90’, but this doesn’t give a fair comparison on keepers from different teams - for example up until last week Man City had faced 314 crosses, whereas Forest had faced over 100 more.

So I got a little creative. I defined a ‘Catchable Cross’ as one that at any time goes into the Six Yard Box (in the air or in the ground, regardless of it’s end location). The majority of goalkeeper Claims & Punches happen in this are anyway. This will tell us how many ‘Catchable Crosses’ a goalkeeper has come into their box, and in my view gives us a much fairer way to compare.

Subscribe now

Read more

Josh Doig - (23) - Sassuolo

Ex-Hibernian left back Josh Doig is one of many Scottish players that have found their way over to Italian football in recent years. A move to Verona for around £3m in the summer of 2022 was his first step abroad, before a move in January 2024 to fellow Serie A side Sassuolo for around double that investment.

Doig is putting up some really decent defensive numbers, albeit for a side that has struggled to keep the ball out of the net this season - he’s part of a defence that has only kept 5 clean sheets in 21 games.

Doig is a proactive defender, much preferring to engage attackers in wide areas rather than defending closer to this box. He’s one of the strongest left-backs in Serie A in this regard. He wins over 65% of his tackles, and standing at over 6”2, wins over 60% of his defensive aerial duels - couple this with his willingness to put his body in the way of shots, then he has a profile that would appeal to Sean Dyche.

You’re not going to get a tremendous amount of creativity out of Doig - but he would provide some solidity on the left, and a natural left-footed option who’s willing to get up and down the flank. Many Scotland fans scratch their heads as to why he struggles to be involved in the national team set up, perhaps a return to the more high profile British game would appeal to him as he looks to try and get on the plane to the World Cup this summer.

Aaron Zehnter - (21) - Wolfsburg

Enjoying his first full season as a Bundesliga player, Aaron Zehnter is a player who’s career seems to be on an upward trajectory. This might not be the easiest transfer in the world to make if Forest were interested, as Wolfsburg only made their move to sign Zehnter from Paderborn last summer after two impressive campaigns in the second tier.

To have such a well-rounded data profile at such a young age is pretty impressive, especially when you take into account it’s his first season at this level too. Zehnter is calm and composed in the final third, but still shows good defensive nous at the other end of the pitch.

His 1v1 defensive work does need some improvement, but he’d be in a great position to learn from the likes of Neco Williams & Ola Aina. He does tend to find himself in the right positions to pick up loose balls, which is always a good trait to have.

There’s a lot of green here on Zehnter’s Pitch Impact visual, showing that he can contribute at both ends of the pitch. He’d likely come well within Forest’s budget if the reported £20m they had on offer for Olivera is still there ready to be spent.

Subscribe now

Gabriel Suazo - (28) - Sevilla

Chilean international Gabriel Suazo is a player that popped up on my radar back in the summer of 2024 when he was my first choice pick for Forest’s next left back. He stayed at Toulouse for another season, before moving to Sevilla last summer and he’s having a wonderful season in La Liga.

For me, Suazo ticks almost every single box that I’d imagine Dyche wants to see from his left back. He has the best tackle success rate of all La Liga left backs this season - whilst also blocking shots at a high rate. But what’s really valuable about him is his ability to be effective going forward too.

Suazo ranks very highly in progressive & creative passing metrics, and his left foot is also responsible for some set piece delivery too. We can see from his visual above that he’s happy to get very high up the pitch and put crosses into the box, or even get into the box himself to cut back the ball to his team mates.

Using my metrics, Suazo ranks as the best playmaking left-back in the Spanish top tier, as well as the best shielding left-back too - what more do you want!? Seriously though, he seems to fit the profile of what Forest have been looking for in this window.

In the summer, Forest spend heavily on players they’d hope would go on to improve during their time in Nottingham and have significant resale value - most of the links in January have been to players with a little more experience. Suazo definitely ticks this box, and with Sevilla nowhere near the European places, they could be tempted to do business. (I’m sure Suazo wouldn’t mind getting away from Vlachodimos either!).

Other Options:

Some other players who I think long-term would be a really good fit at Forest, but probably not in the current circumstances are:

Diego Moreira - (21) - Strasbourg: An attack-minded left back who can play anywhere on the left, he’s already got a loose link with Forest with his cousin Eric da Silva Moreira contracted to the club. He would be a very costly addition though and is a more likely option for the summer.

Joaquin Seys - (20) - Club Brugge: I came across Seys initially when watching Maxim de Cuyper (who joined Brighton in the summer) - he’s filled into his shoes very well but has lots to learn defensively, so certainly wouldn’t fit in Forest’s current side at this point.

Louis Leroux - (20) - Nantes: The French U21 international has been heavily involved this season for his club both at left-back and in central midfield. He’s got a really interesting profile but perhaps is not quite ready for a move to the Premier League - unfortunately I believe he’s also injured for most of February.

Share

Academy product Zach Abbott started as a right sided centre back, with Jair Cunha at the heart of the back 3. Fellow ex-Botafogo player Cuiabano started at left wing back, with Jimmy Sinclair on the other side. Jack Thompson captained the side on the left of the the 3.

In midfield, Ben Hammond sat in the middle with Archie Whitehall & Blaine McClure in front of him. Lamin Sillah was up front, with Kalum Thompson playing slightly more toward the left, allowing him to try and come inside.

Forest lost the game 1-0, conceding a goal after the goalkeeper Luke Campbell fumbled a relatively soft shot before a Reading player tapped in the rebound. Both teams later had a goal disallowed, but Forest struggled to test the Reading keeper, and eventually finished the game with 10 men due to an injury.

The ‘Senior’ Players

I arrived at this game pretty excited with the lineup, a chance to get a good look up close at players Forest have high expectations of in Abbott & Cunha. You’d hope that they’d really stand out at this level, especially Jair Cunha considering his last 12 months of senior football. It seems relatively clear that Cuiabano will not be involved with the senior side, so to be fair to him I didn’t expect too much in a situation that he likely doesn’t want to be in.

Unfortunately for both Abbott & Cunha, I thought they had pretty poor outings. Abbott in particular was sloppy in possession, especially as he moved higher up the field.

Read more

So far this season, Lucca has struggled for minutes after joining Napoli in the summer. He’s played less than 500 minutes across 16 Serie A appearances, with only 4 coming from starts. He’s had an additional 120 minutes in the Champions League too in 5 appearances.

For that reason, it’s been pretty tough for Lucca to gain any consistent form. A couple of things still stick out though, his Shot Quality is amongst the best in the league (although granted this is a small sample size), and he’s good at finding his team mates in the final third. What’s also interesting is his ability to carry the ball, but often this is from deeper areas, rather than the more dangerous carries into the box.

Last season he enjoyed a really productive season with Udinese, splitting his time almost evenly between playing as a lone striker and in a pair. He scored 5 goals as a lone striker, and 7 with someone in close company. His underlying chance creation numbers weren’t too different though, and neither were his shooting numbers either. This suggests he’s equally happy in either role.

Subscribe now

Lucca’s Aerial Ability

Naturally, for a player of Lucca’s size you’d expect him to be a threat aerially. That is indeed in the case, but he’s not the kind of striker you’ll see overpower opposition defenders regularly. Instead he knows he has the height advantage over most, and uses some smart movement to make the most of it.

Read more