A deserved winner of Forest’s Player of the Season award, Williams was easily the most consistent player on the team, probably making only 2 poor appearances out of the 53 he made.

Neco’s career as a Forest player has been a really interesting one - brought in initially to replace Djed Spence as Right Wing Back in a 5, after showcasing his attacking talent in the Fulham side that got promoted as Champions along with Forest. He’s since transformed himself to be one of the best full backs in the Premier League, on his ‘unfavoured’ left side too.

79% of Neco’s minutes came on the left hand side of the pitch this season, that’s over 3,600 - the equivalent of more than an entire Premier League season. For the first time in his Forest career, he didn’t miss a single game through injury, with his one enforced absence coming after his red card against Crystal Palace.

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Williams will likely be the subject of some interest from Premier League clubs - perhaps even Liverpool who may want to target him as a home grown player. Forest will probably need to try and tie him down to a new deal, despite only giving him another one last summer.

Ola Aina

A disrupted pre-season, during which he missed parts of training and some matches, probably didn’t help Aina who got injured on international duty just 3 games in to the Premier League season.

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Matz Sels

After the best season of his career last time out, ending with a Golden Glove, Matz Sels was one of many players who struggled to maintain the high level we saw during Forest’s European push.

It seemed like Sean Dyche wasn’t a huge fan of Sels, as he essentially dropped him for a goalkeeper who didn’t inspire confidence in John Victor, and later asked the club to recruit another keeper in Stefan Ortega.

Sels’ unwillingness to come off his line probably didn’t appeal to Dyche, but to be fair to Sels, he responded really well in the second half of the season. Once he returned from a second short spell out injured, head coach Vitor Pereira kept Sels in for the Premier League games, whilst choosing Ortega to the Europa League games.

Whilst Ortega is clearly better on the ball, under Pereira both keepers performed pretty well, with neither really deserving to be dropped. Sels came through with some key saves at important moments, as Forest eventually secured Premier League safety.

2026/27 Plans:

Sels remains under contract, and with Ortega looking likely to leave the club as his deal expires, it’s fair to assume Sels will go into next season as the first choice keeper. I do expect Forest to look for a new, younger goalkeeper though, one who could potentially be the answer to the position in the longer-term.

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John Victor

One of 4 players to join over the summer from Botafogo, John Victor arrived in Nottingham on the back of a relatively successful Club World Cup. Things started poorly for him though, has he conceded 3 from the 4 shots on target, with Forest giving up a 2-0 lead in the final 10 minutes to lose in Ange Postecoglou’s second game in charge.

He had to wait a couple of months before his next appearance, starting in a rotated side away in Austria against Sturm Graz. He finished with a clean sheet, but was fortunate to see a goal disallowed for offside. In his following appearances he failed to inspire confidence.

In his 5th Premier League start, away at Aston Villa, he would make the big mistake that it felt like we all saw coming. He came rushing far out of his goal to try and intercept a pass that he was never, ever going to get to. John McGinn was able to finish in the empty net.

To make things worse for him, he picked up a serious knee injury that saw him miss virtually the entire season, and also ruled him out of a potential trip to the World Cup with Brazil as their 3rd choice keeper.

2026/27 Plans:

There’s likely going to be a space in the squad for a 2nd choice keeper next season, but I’d be pretty surprised if Forest are comfortable with John Victor being the next man up should Matz Sels pick up an injury again. For that reason, I’d expect John Victor to depart over the summer.

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Stefan Ortega

With Sean Dyche not really fancying Matz Sels (or Angus Gunn), and John Victor out with a serious knee injury, Forest turned to Stefan Ortega late in the winter transfer window. Sels had just picked up an injury in the previous game, so Ortega had an immediate route to first team football.

Forest essentially picked up his existing contract for the remainder of the season. Outside of a horrendous team & coaching performance in his debut at Leeds, Ortega acquitted himself really well. His talents with the ball, especially under Vitor Pereira, made Forest a much more dangerous side in the build-up phase.

Unfortunately for Ortega, he would pick up a slight injury of his own and have to hand the gloves back over to Matz Sels. Once he returned to fitness, Pereira gave him the Europa League games, and he played a huge part in Forest’s run to the semi-finals.

A vastly changed Forest side could have been dead and buried in Porto, if not for a very lucky own goal and a fantastic performance from Ortega. For me, he probably deserved the number one shirt in the league too, but to be fair to Sels, he was also in fine form as Pereira steered the team clear of relegation.

2026/27 Plans:

Ortega is out of contract this summer, and for me there’s no doubt that he should be a starting keeper at a club in one of the big leagues. If it were down to me, I’d be doing everything I could to tie him down and tell him that he’s the first choice next season. I don’t think that’s the way the club will go though - Forest will likely try to retain him, but I expect Ortega to depart in search of a No.1 shirt elsewhere.

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Everybody knows that to pick a well-balanced squad for an international tournament, there’s all sorts of reasoning and thinking that goes in to choosing who gets the nod. But, for something a bit different, let’s see what the squad would be if we just used data from the Top 5 European Leagues this season.

The squad here has been picked using my Player Impact metric, with just three criteria that players must meet:

• Over 500 league minutes in the relevant position

• They must be fit for selection

• They must be eligible for selection by England (obviously!)

Goalkeepers

This area of the squad is probably the least surprising part - and arguably the easiest to select. Jordan Pickford remains England’s No. 1, he’ll be supported by Dean Henderson and Newcastle’s Nick Pope.

The first two will definitely be selected in the squad on Friday, but it’s likely that James Trafford gets included ahead of the unfavoured Pope.

Goalkeepers who will probably make the final squad: 2/3

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Defenders:

Here I’ve gone with 9 defenders, with Ben White not included due to his apparent injury. At left back, we’ve got Nico O’Reilly, and a resurgent Luke Shaw - who was last capped by England in 2024. On the right, Chelsea’s Reece James is first choice, with Real Madrid’s Trent Alexander-Arnold playing second fiddle.

It’s the centre backs that throw up the most surprises. Marc Guehi is not one of them, but I’d be amazed if more than 1 of the other 4 actually get a call up. Harry Maguire is probably the one with the best chance of being selected.

The big surprises here are Everton’s Michael Keane, who’s data suggests he would be very valuable to bring on to help defend a lead in knockout games if Tuchel wanted to switch to a more defensive style. The chances of him adding to his 12 England caps though are very slim.

Then, we’ve got two potential debutants. U21 European Championship winner Charlie Cresswell, who has enjoyed a nice season in Ligue 1 with Toulouse, playing almost exclusively in a back 3. The other surprise is Bournemouth’s James Hill - it’s been a breakthrough season for the 24 year old - who would also bring the added benefit of having a long throw for set piece situations.

Defenders who will probably make the final squad: 4/9

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Midfielders:

A couple of certainties for the squad here, in Premier League winner Declan Rice, and the player who will likely be moving on from Nottingham Forest this summer in Elliot Anderson.

They’ll be joined on the plane by Bournemouth’s Alex Scott, and a resurgent Kobbie Mainoo who has really impressed under Michael Carrick at Manchester United. Everton’s James Garner is the last deeper lying midfielder who makes this squad, his versatility would also help cover both full-back positions at a push too.

In the more advanced areas, Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham is an obvious choice, and he is joined by arguably England’s best player on current form in Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White.

A few weeks ago I thought it would be a long shot for Gibbs-White to make the squad, but his recent form for me makes him almost impossible not to select. There’s a few here that won’t be involved in the final 26-man squad though.

Midfielders who will probably make the final squad: 5/7

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Attackers:

A couple of clear picks here, firstly in captain Harry Kane, and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka. They’ll be joined by Marcus Rashford, who likely completes Tuchel’s first choice front 3 if everybody is fit.

4 spots left now - Aston Villa pair Morgan Rogers & Ollie Watkins both make the squad based on data. Watkins may be the one here who could miss out, with him not being in favour since Tuchel took charge.

Danny Welbeck is another striker who should be picked based on data - I find his selection to be very unlikely though, which is a shame for him as I think he’d be a perfect type of player to have on the bench considering his experience and talent.

The last spot was the one that was the closest battle amongst a few wide players - the winner on this occasion is Newcastle’s Harvey Barnes. In this idea of the squad, he’d provide good back up to Marcus Rashford on the left, and a slightly different playing profile too.

Attackers who will probably make the final squad: 4/7

What we end up with then, is a fairly well-balanced squad with some pretty big surprises. It’s a young squad - especially in midfield, where we might well see someone like Jordan Henderson make it on the plane for his leadership and experience. I’d also be surprised to see Tuchel take 3 out and out strikers.

The players who came very close to making this particular squad include some familiar names who we will likely see in the squad on Friday, but some other surprises too!

• Lewis Hall

• Jayden Bogle

• Dan Burn

• Trevoh Chalobah

• Curtis Jones

• Cole Palmer

• Ebere Eze

• Jarrod Bowen

• Noni Madueke

• Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Total amount of players who will probably make the final squad: 15/26

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Vitor Pereira has improved Forest so much since he took charge in February, but perhaps the biggest issue he’s had is how open Forest are when they’re chasing the game. In fact, even when they were level at 1-1, Forest were still far too open at times.

Anderson makes a decision to press Amad right on the touchline - he doesn’t relaly need to do this, and when he doesn’t regain the ball, we can see that his team mates don’t react quick enough to pick up the spaces he’s leaving behind.

Ideally Dominguez closes this space to make it almost impossible for Man Utd to play their way out toward the middle of the pitch. He’s wary of Bruno behind him though - that’s where Forest have to start reacting better. Neco Williams should really be yelling at Hutchinson for him to cover Cunha, so he can tuck in closer to Milenkovic.

None of these things happen, Man Utd play past Anderson too easily into the space, and they get the ball wide quickly before scoring the controversial second goal.

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Pereira’s Attacking Gamble Fails To Pay Off

Harshly down a goal, Forest try to dial up the pressure in all phases. They clearly played with a bit more freedom here compared to what we’ve seen in other Premier League games of late, but Man Utd gave them plenty of warnings about what was soon to come.

They look to play out from the back here, but the ball long is off-target and Man Utd regain possession in their own half pretty easily. Gibbs-White does notice the pass into Casemiro (who is checking his shoulder intelligently as the video is freeze-framed), but he is a second too late to close the angle on Maguire’s pass.

Two quick passes from Casemiro and then Bruno force Milenkovic to twist and turn his way out of the play, as Mbeumo misses a golden opportunity to extend the lead.

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Archie Whitehall has also joined Sinclair on the bench on 8 occasions in the Europa League, but didn’t make it onto the pitch. Then, on Sunday afternoon at home to Newcastle, both made their first Premier League squad appearances.

Although Forest are hoping to get some injured players back available for these last two games, with safety secured I do wonder if the club may potentially want to keep them involved, and maybe even get them on the pitch at Old Trafford on Sunday, or at The City Ground next weekend.

Jimmy Sinclair

In Sinclair’s early stages at the academy, he was mostly used as a right winger. But over the last couple of seasons, he’s moved back slightly and has played more often as a right back or a right wing back.

He made 37 appearances for the Forest B Team this season, including 3 in the PDL Playoffs these past couple of weeks, where he registered a goal and an assist. In more recent games though, interestingly Sinclair has found himself deployed on the left either as a left-back or a left wing-back.

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This is interesting, as when he came on at Villa Park a couple of weeks ago, instead of moving Neco Williams back over to the left flank, Sinclair came on and filled in at left-wing back.

It’s common for players coming through academy sides to be tried in different positions, not just because a club may be trying to mould them into a different kind of player, but also so they can gain experience in different positions in-game. This means that on those occasions where they may find themselves temporarily filling in during a transition for example, they aren’t completely unfamiliar with playing in that area.

Sinclair’s data at PL2 level is encouraging - he ranks at or above the league average in all key attacking and possession metrics. Defensively, there is perhaps room for improvement, but that comes as no surprise considering he has only in the last couple of seasons transitioned into a deeper role.

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Throughout that game, Villa’s attacking midfielders would continue to pick up spaces between Forest’s lines. With a vastly changed lineup, they’d find it even easier to do this on Thursday night.

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Large Spaces In The Midfield

Throughout the first half, Jair Cunha stayed very close to Nikola Milenkovic to try and support him against the threat of Ollie Watkins. This gave Emi Buendia lots of space to drop in to pockets in central areas.

It looks like Pereira tasked Omari Hutchinson with trying to keep tabs on Buendia, but it’s an unusual task for him and with Jair Cunha being so narrow, he also has to be alive to the threat of Lucas Digne moving forward near the touchline.

When you also add in an early inability from Forest to pass players off to each other (here Anderson needs to be filling in this gap in the middle), then it just allowed Villa to find these kinds of spaces all too easily.

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Some of his key stats from the game included:

• No player attempted more tackles than Netz’s 6

• No player had more successful tackles than Netz’s 4

• No player made more clearances than Netz’s 4

• No player made more ball recoveries than Netz’s 6

Yes, it’s just one game - but these are all very encouraging statistics from a game where the 22 year old didn’t look out of place at all. He’s unfortunate that there was no room for him in the 22-man Europa League squad, and also that in the pecking order he’s behind arguably Forest’s most consistent performer in Neco Williams.

But at Stamford Bridge, he showed that he can be trusted should Forest need to call on him again - and if they are to progress into the Europa League final, then we’ll no doubt see more of him in the final 3 league games of the season.

No Game Time? No Problem

Netz showed with his first action that he had no nerves at all - remember despite his young age he has over 100 Bundesliga appearances under his belt already. Here he jumps onto a loose pass and immediately carries forward.

It’s a confident move considering that he’s been left with both Cole Palmer & Malo Gusto on his flank - but this first action is great to see. Obviously his decision making could improve here - he makes a nice move to open up some space but turns down a pass wide to Igor Jesus and turns the ball over.

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He does know however he has players behind him though, and I think the fact he feels like he can try this so early speaks volumes about the atmosphere and culture Vitor Pereira is creating behind the scenes.

Only a few minutes later, Netz is on his toes again and is able to intercept from a good base position - not too wide and not too narrow. He carries the ball strongly for 60 yards before turning back and recycling the ball.

Defensively Strong - Staying Tight to Palmer

Throughout the first half, Netz would regularly get tight to Cole Palmer when he was wide - the idea being that there was no easy opportunity for him to turn and run at him or any other Forest defender.

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On a memorable night at The City Ground, Forest just about edged the first leg of the Europa League semi-final, and will go to Aston Villa on Thursday night knowing a draw will see them return to Istanbul on 20th May.

The performance and system were both very different to what we saw when these two teams faced each other only a few weeks ago on 12th April - where Aston Villa were perhaps unfortunate to only come away with a point.

On that day, Villa’s wide players in Rogers & McGinn were able to get into good positions to receive the ball between the lines and in the channels between full backs and centre backs. But a combination of a tactical tweak by Pereira, and an enforced personnel change by Unai Emery, meant Forest dealt with this a lot better this time around.

Ross Barkley started as a conventional No. 10 in the Premier League game, but Villa have similar Home Grown issues to the ones Forest have, meaning he’s an unfortunate one who isn’t in the European squad. This forced Emery to change a front 4 that worked so well earlier in April.

Morgan Rogers moved into a role similar to the one Igor Jesus has played recently, where he switches between going behind Watkins, and sometimes along side him. This meant Emi Buendia came in on the left.

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Pereira’s tactical tweaks forced Villa’s widest players even more narrow, with John McGinn in particular forced infield and around 10 yards further back for his average pass reception.

Straight from the kick off, we see Forest’s back 4 show an intent to stay much closer to Villa’s front 4. Morato is the first who jumps out of the line to try and prevent McGinn receiving a pass, before retreating and switching responsibility with Neco Williams. Forest’s defenders sniff out Villa’s first attack well - a great sign that they’d found a way to halt progress that Villa found to easy to come by earlier in April.

They immediately then look to use a move we’ve seen a lot recently, where Hutchinson will drop deep and look to swing a ball into the the forwards, where they can then try and get in behind. Igor Jesus tries an ambitious ball when he should probably have used Hutchinson’s overlap, but this was a very promising first 60 seconds.

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Pereira Preaching Patience

At all of his previous teams, Vitor Pereira has always tried to get his players to be patient on the ball - this can sometimes be a little frustrating as a fan, but the intent is to try and move defenders around and create space that the more talented & technical players can take advantage of.

In this near 2 minute spell of clean possession, Forest are composed and keep trying to probe Villa from side to side. By tempting Villa players over to one side, if Forest can switch the ball quickly then they can make use of the space. In this example, that pass isn’t quite executed properly - but isn’t it refreshing to see a clear plan in action, where the end result isn’t just a lumped ball forward to a single isolated striker?

Pereira always wants at least 4 players on the forward line, ideally 5, all stretching the defence across the width of the pitch. In this new system with Igor Jesus playing closer to Wood, with two natural strikers up front Forest are able to create space in wide areas much easier.

Forest manipulate Villa’s first & second line from side to side, before Morato tries to slide in Williams in a huge gap between a tucked in Matty Cash and a John McGinn who has to follow Elliot Anderson back along the flank. The move doesn’t come off, but the intent is clear and the plan is so close to working.

In this second clip, we see Forest be patient again before they suddenly up the tempo when they’re able to play a pass through Villa’s line. Gibbs-White drops deep from the forward line, Dominguez sneaks behind Watkins, and Wood makes a quick move in front of the centre back. These quick passes represent a increase in the tempo that Villa can’t deal with.

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A common theme in these moves is that the mere presence of Igor Jesus is occupying defenders to such an extent that full-backs have to tuck in to support their centre back. Hutchinson is in lots of space because Digne can’t afford to leave a big gap, Wood plays him in before the young winger wins a corner.

A Slightly New Tweak To Close Out The First Leg

Forest fans will now be used to Pereira changing things within the game - Thursday night was no different in that he made tweaks as we got closer to 90 minutes - but the changes themselves were a little different.

Firstly, with injury forcing Ola Aina off, Zach Abbott was introduced as a right back with around 15 minutes to go. Within a few minutes, Pereira then switched Forest from their back 4, moving instead to a back 5 with Omari Hutchinson then filling in at RWB. This was a brave move, but a move that the winger’s out of possession discipline in recent games gave Pereira faith that it could work.

Forest moved to a 5-2-3, with Gibbs-White & Igor Jesus very narrow, either side of Chris Wood. They didn’t just sit back though, they’d still press high to try and disrupt Villa. More importantly, when the turnover wasn’t possible, they’d then drop back into the shape.

Villa at this point had Rogers & Sancho in wide areas, whilst Forest restricted access to the middle of the field. What we see toward the end of the clip though is a bit of evidence that Pereira’s work - although very good - isn’t done.

Wood firstly calls Igor Jesus to be in the right position, before he then starts a press that Anderson isn’t ready for. Finally play through Forest’s line after over a minute of being forced to go sideways and backwards.

What’s great to see here though, Forest had a clear plan that as soon as Villa made it deep into the Forest half, the 5-2-3 immediately became a 5-4-1, with Igor Jesus moving to a right midfield role ahead of Omari Hutchinson.

The fact that Pereira has been able to embed these different systems in the squad in such a short space of time, and with very little time on the training ground, shows not only how talented a coach he is, but also how much the Forest squad have bought into his methods.

It does make me wonder about what the squad could be capable of with a full pre-season with Pereira under their belts - similar to what we saw last season when Nuno and his coaching staff put in some great work in the early stages of pre-season in Spain.

Despite His Incredible Talent - There’s Still Room For Anderson To Improve

Thursday night was another fine performance from Elliot Anderson, who seems to just add another £1m to his price tag every game. But there are still some areas in his game that need improving - particular when he hasn’t got the ball.

Villa’s best chance of the game came in the second half - it was a little fortunate in how it came about in that a Morgan Rogers shot was deflected into the path of Ollie Watkins - but the striker definitely should have done much better with his finish. But how did we get to that point?

Anderson’s biggest weakness for me is when he’s got players running in behind him - there’s two reasons for this. Firstly, we have to remember this is only his 2nd full season of being a 1st team regular, he’s still very inexperienced compared to most midfielders he’s coming up against. Secondly, his time at Newcastle was spent either in wide areas, or playing in a midfield 3 - not only does he still lack experience, he lacks it in a midfield 2 as well.

In this example, Anderson watches, and more importantly then follows, the pass from Villa’s midfielder. As he follows the ball, 2 Villa players move into the box - this creates a huge problem for Milenkovic. He chooses to follow the run, but then gets unfortunate with the deflection that falls into Watkins.

I’ve got no doubt Anderson will improve in this regard - and to be fair to him he’s already improved in this area even during this season. But it is something that can and has caused Forest problems, especially against midfielders who are willing to crash the box.

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The Value of Scouting Your Opponent

But before we look into what Forest on Friday night, we must first do what Forest’s coaching staff did - and that’s look at what Sunderland were doing in the previous week against Aston Villa.

For Aston Villa’s first corner - they show very clearly they want to go short, but the zonal & man marking jobs for Sunderland remain constant. Reinildo started the game, and is one of the smaller players in the six yard box.

Trai Hume, according to Opta the same height as Reinildo at 5”11, has replaced his team mate and takes up the same role as the zonal back post marker. But it’s very clear on the video that he’s very hesitant in congested areas to engage in a physical battle.

On this occasion, he gets away with it as the referee deem that Villa have committed a foul in the air. But this will not have gone unnoticed by Forest’s coaching staff. Hume has only won 4 of his 15 aerial duels in his own box this season - that’s just 26%. That reduces to just 1 of 5 aerial duels in his own six yard box (20%).

Hume’s defending here for Forest’s opener (an own goal by Hume), is some of the worst defending you’ll see at Premier League level. It’s clear he’s been misprofiled as a zonal marker, but he has to do better. He doesn’t even attempt to win this ball, or even block it. When Igor Jesus makes contact, Hume has his feet planted on the floor, back to the ball, and has no interest in engaging physically. This is clearly something Forest have identified pre-match, and they’re rewarded for their work.

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Just after 14:45 on Sunday afternoon, Forest’s players were booed off the pitch after visitors Burnley took an injury-time lead. It was a first-half that nobody would have remembered before Zian Flemming’s opener - as both teams combined for just 5 attempts on goal.

Nothing was working for Forest, as they met Burnley’s low block with sloppy and inaccurate passing. There were moments where it looked like Forest might create something, but those moments dissipated pretty quickly whenever they got close to the box.

During the first half, Forest weren’t able to do this often enough. Get the ball to their best players in between the lines. And this example sums up the first 45, when they did get into promising positions, they just couldn’t gain control.

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Igor Jesus’ Introduction Changed Everything

Pereira’s decision to take off the underwhelming Dilane Bakwa, and replace him with the hard-working Igor Jesus, was the catalyst for Forest’s vastly improved second-half performance. His appearance gave Forest a different option centrally, but more importantly it made much harder for Burnley to pick up Morgan Gibbs-White.

When I say Jesus ‘changed everything’, that’s not because he came on and was the stand-out player. He performed really well, but his introduction gave a platform for a different role for Forest’s most talented attacker.

Gibbs-White mentioned post-match that his job wasn’t to play as a left-winger in the way that Forest usually do - but more so to play as a ‘left 10’, the same role he has been asked to play when Forest go with a back 3 or back 5.

The pitch on the left shows how much narrower Gibbs-White received the ball in the 2nd half against Burnley compared to Forest’s regular left winger Callum Hudson-Odoi. This is clearly narrower than Forest’s usual set-up.

The pitch on the right shows Gibbs-White’s pass receptions in the second half compared with his average pass reception location when he plays as a number 10. This is the furthest to the left Gibbs-White has received the ball in the Premier League this season.

5 minutes into the second half and we can see immediately that Gibbs-White will look to come narrow when Forest have the ball. This opens up a passing option in a central area, makes it more difficult for a full-back to decide whether to follow him infield or not, and in turn opens up more space for an overlapping full-back - in this case Neco Williams.

In the immediate next phase of play, the same thing is happening. Forest effectively have a narrow front 3 here (similar to the issues Villa caused on the previous weekend). Having players close to Wood makes life much easier for him, and gives Forest more dangerous options in the middle too.

Whoever was up against Kyle Walker as a natural winger was going to have a tough time. He’s still a very good 1 v 1 defender, relying on his pace. His weakness throughout his career though is how he defends when his man doesn’t have the ball. You beat Walker with clever movement, not with trickery.

Gibbs-White gets himself into some space, the ball falls to him fortunately but he can’t connect properly with the attempt. He more than made up for this though in the coming minutes.

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For the equaliser, Forest start off with a routine they had used already once in the second half. Hutchinson drops deep, bringing his full-back with him, this leaves Wood & Igor Jesus able to fight 2 v 2 for a long ball. Wood’s anticipation means he picks up the loose ball, and Forest are in business.

Another slight tweak - something we’ve seen often from Pereira - is Milenkovic pushing up high on the opposition striker. This pays off as he wins a duel and heads the ball back into the box.

Kyle Walker & another Burnley defender get out too slowly, and aren’t aware of Gibbs-White lurking in behind them. He takes advantage of a poor header from James Ward-Prowse, and finishes calmly.

The second goal continues the theme of Gibbs-White being in a position that a Forest ‘left-winger’ never is. He flicks on a ball to Wood, who lays it off to Igor Jesus who remains close by. He does really well to hold off a defender and spread the ball wide for Omari Hutchinson.

I noted on Thursday against Porto that I was happy that Hutchinson was trying to threaten on the outside - this gives defenders something to think about as he could go both ways. It almost lead to a goal for Ndoye in that game, and it did lead to one on Sunday.

Gibbs-White peals off to the back post, Kyle Walker can’t react quick enough to the cross and tries to get out to him to block the shot - he doesn’t get his angle right though and only really prevents a shot toward the near post. Gibbs-White shows great technique and his contact is too powerful for Dubravka.

Jesus Rewarded With First Home Premier League Goal

To cap off a wonderful second half, Igor Jesus was finally able to get on the scoresheet in a Premier League game at The City Ground. It was a reward his play deserved on Sunday, and came after he and Nico Dominguez combined really well in the closing stages.

Both players make quick scans before the ball gets to them to see the lay of the land - Dominguez makes an intelligent header, and gets the ball back from Igor Jesus. The Brazilian makes an immediate move forward, and is released by the Argentinian.

The first touch is perfect - by going across the chasing defenders it makes it very difficult for them to intervene without fouling him and risking a red card. Jesus stays calm, takes an extra touch and then finishes through the defenders legs into the corner. This was a similar finish (albeit without the deflection) to his goal against PSG in the Club World Cup.

Might We See This Again?

With news breaking yesterday that Callum Hudson-Odoi is out for the rest of the season, there’s now an opening in the starting eleven that somebody needs to fill. The second half performance with Gibbs-White as a very narrow left-winger was incredibly bright, and it could persuade Pereira to go with this system again in future games, especially with Forest’s underperforming wingers.

One thing I’ve not covered in the clips here, is the work Igor Jesus did off the ball. Despite being the deeper of the 2 strikers when Forest had possession, when pressing he often led the line and did the hard running, allowing Wood to sit in behind him. This could be beneficial for Wood who is still regaining match fitness.

You could argue too that if any player deserves to come into the starting lineup based on recent performances, particularly on Sunday, then it is Igor Jesus.

Beyond a shadow of a doubt now, Forest do have the ability to switch to different systems before & during matches. This makes it very difficult for opponents to prepare to face them. In a short space of time, Vitor Pereira has used at least 3 different systems to good effect - whilst giving significantly more game time to the fringe players too. This can only bode well for the rest of the season.

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Francesco Farioli is a really bright young manager, but it did seem in the first half he seemed very reluctant to change his side’s tactics after dropping Pablo Rosario into their backline, despite facing constant pressure from Forest during the first half

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At half-time though, he was brave and made 4 chances, completely switching up the game plan. Forest struggled to decipher what Porto were doing with a 3-4-2 formation, where the wider centre backs (particularly Rosario) would step into midfield. Without the ball, Porto would often leave both Moffi & William Gomes high, and despite instructions being bellowed by Vitor Pereira, the players on the pitch for Forest never quite seemed to get the message.

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This first clip, in the 54th minute, shows Vitor Pereira losing his mind at how Forest have left themselves 2 v 2 at the back. What should really be happening here, is the full-back on the side opposite to the ball should be dropping back to support his two centre backs. In this case, it’s Ola Aina who is at fault here, and his manager let’s him know about it.

There’s also some responsibility here on the likes of Ibrahim Sangare & particularly Nicolas Dominguez. Both midfielders are in what we’d say are normal positions considering the game state - the Argentinian checks his shoulder here to scan, and should really spot this potential danger and drop back quicker.

Just a couple of minutes later, and Forest are back in a conventional flat back 4. Jair Cunha looks to push out and prevent a pass to a forward, but doesn’t quite get there in time. Murillo feels he has to come across to help fill the space, which he does quite well - but he & Jair Cunha collide and are both out of position for a quick throw in.

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The Opening Stages

Those of you who have read my initial deep dive on Vitor Pereira when he was appointed will remember that he likes to put 5 players on the front line when building up from the back. This idea creates more space in your own half to help build moves, but also comes with it’s own risks.

With the wing-backs pushing really high, that leaves your 3 centre backs having to cover lots of space inside their own half. Pereira’s principles mean that he wants players to be proactive for the most part, but when your wide centre back pushes almost into the final third and fails to win the ball back - naturally Forest will be left short at the back.

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This first chance for Porto came in the opening minute, and it was a fine save from Ortega that kept the scoreline level. The central midfielders don’t do well here either, with first Yates & then Dominguez failing to track the late runner who eventually takes a poor shot on the rebound.

In this next clip, with the scoreline still 0-0, we see Forest sitting back in a flat 5. This system can be flexible, allowing a wing-back to press high with the rest of the defenders then forming what looks like a conventional back 4.

The system still requires players that remain switched on though, particularly at wing-back and then as the wide centre back. Unless you’re intending to play a low-block, these systems are designed with more attacking-minded wide centre backs, rather than ones that you’d class as defensively solid.

Yates wants to pass his midfield runner on, which would be fine if Forest’s defence are able to shuffle across. But this is when it comes down to personnel - with Pereira consistently rotating in Europe, Forest have the attack-minded Bakwa positioned here essentially as a right back.

He doesn’t have the defensive nous to tuck, when someone like Aina & Williams probably would. That prevents Abbott from shuffling across to deal with the midfield runner quickly, and makes it very easy for Porto to take him out of the play with a quick pass and eventually a poor shot.

Porto’s Opening Goal

Initially in this clip we see some promising work from Forest. It’s so important at this level to press as a team, otherwise you’re often better in staying back and regrouping rather than individuals wasting their energy running out of position.

Here, Forest press really well - firstly with Gibbs-White who follows the ball whilst cutting off passing lanes. He’s joined by McAtee & Wood centrally, with Ndoye, Yates & eventually Bakwa helping too.

Forest eventually turn the ball over after they give the Porto defender nowhere to go - this is the result of a really well formed press, and shows that even when Forest are a little under the cosh they still have the ability to disrupt their opponents.

Bakwa shows some really nice quick footwork and almost plays Chris Wood in behind the defence - unfortunately the pass is overhit, and it’s now when things start to go wrong for Forest.

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• Omari Hutchinson’s weaknesses and inexperience to adjust when Forest don’t have the ball.

• Forest’s centre back pairing of Murillo & Milenkovic not being brave enough to jump out of the line to put pressure on pass receivers.

Whilst John McGinn was arguably Aston Villa’s best player on the day, it was the movement of Morgan Rogers on the other wing that was causing Forest the biggest problems.

Playing narrow from the left flank, he would regularly drop deeper as Lucas Digne would push high on the touchline. Hutchinson wouldn’t go with him, which meant Ola Aina needs to be passive and stay back. This gives Rogers an easy opportunity to receive the ball, turn, and progress the play forwards.

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Forest would experience issues on the other flank too. There’s no doubt that Vitor Pereira for the most part asks his players to be much more proactive when they’ve not got the ball. This relies on players making smart decisions though, and it only takes one player to make the wrong call to give top opponents like Aston Villa the chance to exploit the error.

Hudson-Odoi wants to make something happen, so he eyes up pressing Victor Lindelof. However, Igor Jesus has this passing lane covered, so he needs to react and retreat. Villa then take advantage of the 2 v 1 on Neco Williams, and suddenly have easy possession on the left.

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At just 19 years old, Ryūnosuke Satō is one of the brightest talents the J-League has to offer, and after a great spell on loan in 2025, he’s back at his parent club ready to build on his first full season in senior football, potentially with a view to being part of Japan’s World Cup squad.

The biggest question mark on Satō at this stage of his fledgling career is what position he’ll play in. Last season he split his time playing as a wing-back on either side, but many feel his future perhaps lies in a more central role.

With Fagiano Okayama last season, Satō spent just under 1,200 minutes as a LWB, and just under 900 minutes as a RWB. We can see from his data on both flanks though that his impact & playing style remains fairly consistent regardless of which side of the field he’s situated.

In the early stages of this season he’s spent most of his time on the left flank with FC Tokyo, so it’s that side of the pitch we’ll concentrate on here.

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His data profile suggests Satō was a wing-back that threatens the opposition box, with a work rate that allows him to participate at both ends of the pitch. This is shown most obviously when looking at his Successful Defensive Actions per 90, where he ranked in the 95th percentile last season.

What I speak about above translates perfectly into this visual - his attacking events are narrower than you would expect a traditional wing-back to be, his pass reception locations are generally very high up the field, and he has a significant amount of defensive actions inside his own final third.

Like most young players - especially ones with an attacking profile like Satō - his main weakness defensively is his success rate in duels. Despite having lots of successful defensive actions, his tackle success is just 50% overall. Combine this with aerial duels (he’s only 5”7), and his duel success is just 40.7% when wide on the left.

The biggest difference between Satō’s profile on the left and the right, is his ability to progress the ball. His ball carrying numbers remain high from both sides (although are higher on the left), but as a right footer when he’s playing on the left he finds it much easier to find good passing angles to progress the ball into more dangerous areas.

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If you gave Satō the ball on the left last season, he might pass the ball backwards on occasion, or more likely sideways - but if you allow him to carry the ball from within the middle third then he will pretty much always carry it forward.

Only 2 players at left-wing back had more Progressive Carries per 90 than Satō last season, and only 3 had more net Carrying Yards per 90. These are great numbers for someone so young, and go a long way to explain why there’s such a buzz about him and also why he’s already got 5 senior caps for his country.

The last visual to look at shows where he’s having the greatest impact for his team compared to his peers at left wing-back. His poor defensive duel success means there’s a lot of light red in his own final third - but ahead of that in the opposition half it looks very positive.

With time this could of course change, Satō is essentially only 1 year into his senior career and at 19 still has a lot of growing to do both physically and mentally. But it also explains why, as mentioned above, some feel his future may best lie centrally and/or higher up the field.

In fact he has been doing just that for FC Tokyo in the early stages of this season, playing mostly on the left of midfield in a 4-4-2 system. This comes after an encouraging AFC U23 Championships with Japan in January where he notched 3 goals and 2 assists playing as the number 10 in a 4-2-3-1.

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Clips & Highlights

In a recent game against Yokohama F Marinos, Sato scored his first goal for FC Tokyo in a first half that blew away the opposition. Throughout the game he pressed with intensity, this lead to him deflecting a pass that gained his side possession of the ball.

Sato then maintains his wide position, making himself available for a ball down the left. It looks a little awkward but he manages to control the ball before confidently cutting inside onto his right foot. He strikes the ball well through the defenders legs and aims for the near side of the goal - the goalkeeper although perhaps unsighted, should do better. Either way, Sato scored a nice goal that was reward for his good initial work.

It was noticeable in the game that Sato was able to pop up in central areas despite playing on the left wing. This happened a lot more in the second half - for a 19 year old he showed some really intelligent moments where he would drop into good spaces to receive the ball, but before doing so he’d regularly check his shoulders for opponents and passing options.

Physically, for me he fights above his size, although because he’s quite small in stature and still so young he can be physically overpowered at times. This can come with time and experience though. The above video shows each of his actions in the 3-0 victory, before being subbed off in the 2nd half.

This highlights video is from last year, where he played as an 18 year old for Fagiano Okayama. Throughout he shows some really good touches and moments, and an awareness that many his age just do not show.

Final Thoughts

Last year was Sato’s breakthrough, in his first full season as a senior pro with significant playing time, he was the Young Player of the Month twice and eventually the overall J-League Young Player of the Year. This led to him breaking into the senior national side in June 2025, and he now has 5 caps to his name.

Sato will be hoping to make the final World Cup squad for Japan this summer, he has a great chance of doing so despite not turning 20 until October. It might not be a tournament where he truly announces himself though, but it’s still an opportunity to put himself on the radar of clubs across Europe.

He still has a lot of growing to both in mind and body. There’s moments where he uses his body well to protect the ball against stronger opponents, but others where he will still be overpowered. This I feel is what could put some teams in the ‘bigger’ leagues from going for him.

Despite playing mostly in wide areas, there are some who feel Sato’s long-term future could be in a more central position - including respected Japanese football writer Ryo Nakagawara, who wrote a great article on Sato on his Substack back in December.

I can definitely see why he thinks that, particularly when we look at those clips above where he shows his ability to drop into those central space to receive passes with his back to defenders. The Japan set up have already utilised him in central areas in the youth teams.

I do wonder though if his intensity in the press (at least at this stage) could mean he would be a bit of a risk playing deeper in a midfield pair though, as he will often leave space in behind him when pressing quick & high - this is something better opponents will expose.

For now, I expect to see Sato remain playing in wider areas where he can continue to gain valuable playing experience at a decent level and in familiar surroundings. It’s possible that any positional change might not come until he makes the next move in his career, which could very well be to a European league.

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In just under 600 minutes as a left-winger, Mofokeng has scored 3 and assisted 3. His productivity from that initial starting position has been tremendous, and he leads all players in so many key metrics, including my Player Impact metric.

Mofokeng’s data profile across all creative metrics is phenomenal, no left winger has more Expected Assists or created more chances than he has. He also ranks 1st for Successful Attacking Actions.

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It therefore comes as no surprise to see his Position Profile point heavily toward creation. He still though offers a huge scoring threat too, and despite all of his attacking instincts, still racks up plenty of defensive actions too.

It’s going to be an interesting international break for Mofokeng, who as we can see from the above visual likes to do the majority of his attacking work in and around the box. Even when played as a left winger, he’s not someone who will hog the touchline, instead he wants to try and dictate the play in more central areas.

South Africa head coach Hugo Broos has already stated that Mofokeng will get playing time as a traditional Number 10 in this international break - as the national side look to see whether they can make the most of his talents ahead of the World Cup where they’ll take on Mexico, South Korea and the winner of the one of UEFA’s World Cup Playoffs.

Getting him in those central areas will put him in the positions where he does the most damage to the opposition. All but one of his open play shot assists this season have come from within the width of the box.

Mofokeng isn’t a prolific ball carrier, so for South Africa if they are to use him in an important role this summer they’ll need to make sure they surround him with the right supporting cast.

We can see from his Pitch Impact visual where Mofokeng has been most dangerous this season - it’s those left-central areas inside the final third. Although we’ve seen he can help out defensively, a lot of this work is related to ball recoveries rather than winning defensive duels, hence the patches of red inside his own half.

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Clips & Highlights

A few weeks ago back in February Mofokeng put on a great performance for Orlando Pirates against Marumo Gallants, setting up one goal (with 5 other chances created), and scoring one himself too.

For his assist, notice how he waits for a team mate to drop deep before he continues to move across the field from his initial position on the left wing. His curved run behind the defence into loads of space is really intelligent, and it’s a relatively easy pass across the goal for him to make to help give his side the lead.

For his goal, Mofokeng shows great patience coming in from the left once again. He fakes the shot on multiple occasions to freeze defenders, before eventually dinking the ball into the top corner on the third ‘attempt’. He’s so confident with the ball at his feet and a very clever player, but of course as standards of defending increase he may not find things as easy as he does here.

When we look at him playing at a higher level (video below is every action made in the African Nations Cup Round of 16 match for South Africa against Cameroon in January), we see a player that at times is struggling a little with the far higher standard of play.

As the game went on - and as Cameroon were able to sit back more with an increasing lead - Mofokeng did find things more difficult in the game to create. He had one nice moment in the second half where he carried the ball well centrally toward the box, winning a free kick, but otherwise struggled to get involved in the second half before being substituted.

But despite that, there’s still some really positive moments there where he’s making good reverse or first time passes to fool defenders, in what was essentially the biggest game of his career. It’s why South Africa are looking to get the most out of him in this international break ahead of the World Cup - having someone with this much talent gives them a great chance of getting some positive results this summer.

Final Thoughts

As mentioned earlier on, there’s not really any form of pipeline of talent from South Africa to Europe - instead there’s been a few players in recent seasons that have actually made the move over to the MLS. Because of the lack of a track record in the league exporting talent, it does mean that transfer fees aren’t massive - the record fee for an Under-23 player is only €2.5m.

This would make a potential deal for a player like Mofokeng relatively low-risk in terms of outlay, which is why I think he would appeal to European teams in countries like Greece, Belgium & The Netherlands, as well as Scandinavian countries too.

Unfortunately, Mofokeng’s lack of size (he’s only around 5”5) means I think he would struggle at the highest level. I don’t think he’d ever be a fit for English football - but he does have undeniable talent and can definitely carve out a fine career for himself on a much bigger stage. He’ll be hopeful that this summer’s World Cup puts him in the shop window for a good move in 2026.

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Mohammed officially joined Elfsborg in April 2024, following a short trial period in the previous year where he played and trained in the academy set up. Standing at around 6”3, he joined from Ghanaian side Inter Allies FC - a club that has had 6 full Ghana internationals pass through its system before they joined European sides.

After a season playing with their Elfsborg’s reserve side, in 2025 he joined relegation threatened Varnamo on a loan deal that eventually was extended to last the whole season. It’s during this spell that he started to show his potential, standing out in a struggling side.

Mohammed had to get through plenty of work in his debut season as a senior player, but his data profile is incredibly strong across almost every area when compared against other centre backs in the Swedish top flight.

Using my Player Impact Model, Mohammed ranked as the best centre back in the division. Whilst the model is heavily weighted toward an individual’s actions, it does take into account goals conceded & clean sheets - both statistics that Varnamo really struggled with. They conceded a league high 69 goals in 30 games, with just 5 clean sheets.

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He played a part in 16 of their 30 league games, having been left on the bench or out of the squad completely for the first 12. After getting into the side, Mohammed only missed 2 games, both through suspension. Varnamo took a total of 6 points in the 14 games that Mohammed missed, but gained 10 in the 16 where he played.

As a right footer, he prefers to play on the right of the central defence, and will happily receive passes inside his own half. Varnamo were a fairly direct side, and had a low overall pass completion of less than 80%. We saw from Mohammed’s own data profile that his pass completion is low, but he would look to progress the ball forward more than any other centre back in the league.

Defensively, mainly due to the large amounts of defending that Varnamo had to do, most of his defensive actions are heavily concentrated in and around his own penalty spot.

What’s really encouraging about this data though, is the overall success rate he has in duels. Mohammed is much more comfortable dealing with attackers aerially than on the ground, but his overall rates here in every area of the pitch are all higher than the CB average - including a 65.5% duel success rate in his own penalty box.

Looking again at ball progression, we can see that inside his own half Mohammed will generally always look to play forward, especially with his passes. There’s practically no backward passes here, again reenforcing what we can already see from his data profile.

Couple this with his progressive & creative actions visual above, and it’s fairly easy to see that when he receives the ball in his own half on the right side of the field, he’ll regularly look to progress forward either with passes through the lines, or with longer passes down the right channel.

With all of this data, it should therefore come as little surprise to see that Mohammed ranked as the strongest box-defender in the Allsvenskan last season. There’s a lot of heavily-shaded green in his own area, as well as some lighter patches as we move further up the field - which suggests to me that he would have even more to offer in a better side.

This is something we’ll get to see this season as he’s now a part of Elfsborg’s first team set-up, and has played a part in their early-season cup fixtures, scoring 1 in his 3 appearances.

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Clips & Highlights

Unfortunately, it’s fairly difficult bordering on impossible to get hold of full matches where Mohammed has taken part, so we have to make do with some highlight packages. I’d never suggest basing an opinion on a player purely on this kind of footage, but what this can do is provide some examples of things Mohammed does really well - actions that match what we’ve already seen with his data profile.

The above clip shows some of Mohammed’s highlights at Varnamo last season. Here we see a player that

• Can read the game intelligently

• Is more than happy to step out of defence with the ball

• Has the ability to pass through the lines to the feet of midfielders & attackers

• Is strong in the air

Remember though of course, naturally these are highlights and do not include any mistakes he may have made throughout the season. As a 19 year old in all these clips, there will definitely have been mistakes and he’ll have plenty of areas where he can grow.

This clip from his recent game for Elfsborg is a great example of a young defender who despite having lots of encouraging attributes, still has some clear improvements to make. Here, he isn’t aware enough of what’s behind him, as he only checks his shoulder the once.

As the attacker moves into the box, Mohammed is way too close to his goalkeeper and not in a position where he’s really helping anybody. If he’s had an extra look or two behind him, he’d be able to adjust his position accordingly. The line is fine, but he needs to be a yard or two higher, and he’d easily cut out the pull back for the goal.

These two clips show Mohammed’s range of passing, and that he does possess the ability to move into the right position to affect opposition attacks. The first clip is a lovely weighted pass over the midfield and in between defenders.

The second shows him in his zonal marking role from a corner, as he then reacts to the ball going over him to get back into a good position to block a goalbound shot. It’s encouraging that this clip comes after his positioning error for the first goal - it shows the ability & intelligence is there, just not the consistency, unsurprising for someone so inexperienced and young.

The final clip here shows Rufai Mohammed’s goal in the second half. He smartly peals off to the back post where he knows he has an aerial mismatch with the remaining zonal marker from the corner.

He then shows good timing with his run, and great bravery to put his head on the cross and score the goal that gave Elfsborg hope in the game with 20 minutes to go.

Final Thoughts

There are clearly many talented players in Africa, and plenty of Scandinavian clubs have recently been creating pathways for them to find their way into senior European football.

Mohammed has really been helped by Elfsborg, firstly with a nice bedding in period with their youth & academy sides, then by a senior loan at a good level with a team in Varnamo that had to battle hard for every point.

Now, he’s back at his parent club with a chance to help them potentially qualify for Europe this season. He has very recently signed an extension to his contract, so he’s now committed to the club until the end of 2029. But there will be scouts & clubs already aware of him and monitoring him closely ahead of the summer transfer window.

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As it turned out, the 19-year old had very little to do defensively, but dealt with everything that came his way with confidence and assurance. For me in previous appearances, it’s not just that it didn’t look like he belonged, it didn’t look like he felt he belonged either.

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His performance felt like the true arrival of a young player in the first-team squad - and it’s not a surprise that perhaps it took him being used in his favoured position for the first time since August 2024.

We can see from Abbott’s action map that he only had one defensive action in his own box in the entire 120 minutes of the match - that shows up how well Forest defended in general, but also is a result of the calmness & composure shown by the back 3.

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At Wolves when playing with a back 3, as I mentioned in my deep dive on him when he was appointed, when they would build up from the back Pereira would push his wing backs very high and wide, essentially creating a front 5 spread all across the pitch.

On Thursday night though we saw some variations of this for the first time since he stepped into the Forest dugout. Igor Jesus has spent most of his Forest career literally being the most isolated striker in the Premier League, but this tweak means he was surrounded by team mates.

When Forest had a goal kick, both wing backs would move very narrow into the centre circle, joining Hutchinson, Gibbs-White & Igor Jesus. Pereira identified Midjytlland would likely go man-for-man, so this tactic creates a lot of space in wide areas.

That space was particularly evident on the left, as Nikola Milenkovic would push up really high on the right (something we’ll get on to later). This tactic also involves some pretty interesting rotations in movement.

Murillo is with Sels in the box, Forest then have essentially a back 3 made up of Dominguez, Anderson & Morato, all of whom would be trusted to play out from the back if the moment allows. Aina & Hudson-Odoi almost become central midfielders & Milenkovic is a right wing back. These movements cause problems for defences as they sometimes aren’t sure whether to pass on a player or mark them all over the pitch.

What this can also do, is give Forest a much better chance of winning second balls. By spreading out the distance between the lines of Midjyttland, and coupling that with having a 5 v 5 battle in the opposition half, Forest are far more likely to pick up cleared headers or flick ons. This initially was a strength for Forest under Dyche, but as time went on and teams became familiar with Dyche’s one-dimensional plan, Forest became very easy to defend.

The other plan that we often saw put into action, was Milenkovic moving forward very high down the right flank - again exposing Midjytlland’s man marking system. Omari Hutchinson was key here, he would drop deep, sometimes as far as a right back position, where one of the opposition back 5 would follow him.

Milenkovic would then stroll forward, with Midjytlland’s wide player not following him. Because Forest were so often trying to progress down the left with Anderson, Gibbs-White & Hudson-Odoi, the Danish side were heavily overloaded on that flank. So much so that Aina was effectively able to move into a centre forward position with Igor Jesus smartly dropping deep.

Sels was able to pick out Milenkovic with a good long ball, but unfortunately Aina & the Serbian were unable to take advantage of the 2 v 1 and couldn’t create a decent chance. This again is something we never really saw under Dyche - this is a freedom of movement for players regardless of their initial position.

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It does however come with some risks. The biggest one for me is where Hutchinson is asked to drop deep and sometimes get involved in build-up in his own final third. He’s not strong enough to withstand pressure from defenders on his shoulder, and naturally with his playing style anyway he’s prone to turnovers. This can cause big issues when the 2 defenders on the right side have pushed up higher ahead of him.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

Vitor Pereira has shown in his short spell in charge that he’s not afraid to completely drop players if he feels they aren’t performing on the field or on the training ground. With Jair Cunha potentially out injured for a long period of time, and Morato being Morato, I do wonder whether we’ll see much more of the back 5 system - especially when Forest have shown some decent performances in a back 4 (Fenerbahce & Liverpool).

If Pereira really wants to stick with the back 5, then something like the above could be close to what we’ll see. Neco Williams came on at half-time on Thursday and essentially played hybrid LCB/LWB role with Hudson-Odoi playing very high. By bringing in Luca Netz as the LWB, Hudson-Odoi can start on the bench & Williams could swap to RCB.

Basically I’m trying to find a way to play the same system without Morato in the starting lineup. Aina of course made a big mistake on Thursday night, and often looks very tired late in games. So perhaps he would come out of the squad and Williams would play as the RWB. Pereira could of course go with Bakwa in that position, but Forest definitely couldn’t rely on him to be responsible at either end of the pitch as he continues to struggle with just short cameos off the bench.

If Pereira feels Aina isn’t ready to start this game, then I feel this is probably very close to what we’ll see this afternoon. Netz would come in at left back, with Williams moving over to the right. Having Harry Wilson to deal with would be a tough assignment, but I’ve watched Netz play well against Olise when his Mönchengladbach side were actually down to 10 men, so I’m sure he’d feel relatively confident if given the assignment.

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Sorry to remind everyone, but below are the clips of each shot by Forest’s Danish opponents. There’s nothing fancy in these clips, just some good old-fashioned set pieces that Mikel Arteta & Nicolas Jover would be proud of. Forest simply have to defend these situations much better across the next two games.

On the bright side, I think a two-legged game against opponents like this is much more beneficial to Forest than a one-match shootout. As bad as Forest’s defending was on that night, they could and perhaps should have scored more goals - you’d hope over 2 games that Forest’s quality ‘should’ see them through.

What Does The Data Say?

It will come as no surprise to anybody ahead of tomorrow night that Midtjylland are one of the strongest set piece teams in Europe. But what’s interesting is their reliance on set pieces in the domestic game is nowhere near as high as it is in European encounters.

23.72% of Midtjylland’s expected goals come from set piece situations - this ranks 2nd in the Danish top flight. The actual figure though, of 10.25, is the highest in the league by over 1.5. Remember that domestically Midtjylland are one of the strongest teams, so they’re able to impose their quality on opponents much easier than in Europe. Therefore their reliance on set pieces, whilst high, is nowhere near has large as it is on the continental stage.

A good comparison here is with Arsenal, who’s percentage of xG from set piece situations is 30.19%, ranking 6th in the Premier League. Forest’s figure is 19.99%, ranking 17th.

If we look just at shot attempts, Midtjylland do rank 1st in Danish top flight - with 31.88% of their total shot attempts coming from set piece situations. This is similar to that of Arsenal (30.95%). It points toward a team that still creates heavily from set pieces, but unsurprisingly finds it much easier to create high quality chances from open play when facing Danish opposition.

Domestically at least, Midtjylland’s goal return from set pieces is actually pretty low compared to others in their league, with 19.30% of their goals coming from set pieces so far this season.

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What’s really interesting here though, is the kind of set piece they’ve been having the most success with. Despite the share only ranking 4th, they’ve still scored 11 set piece goals in the league, which is 3 higher than the next best team. The big difference? 6 of those goals have come from throw-ins, that’s 1 more than the rest of the Danish Superliga combined!

If we switch it up a little and just look at their Europa League data (from the League Phase onward), this is where Midtjylland really start to try and press their advantage over other teams. They don’t have the resources and financial backing of many of their competitors in Europe, so instead they focus on their strengths - it’s clear that it’s brought them plenty of success in their European campaign.

Set pieces make up a massive 45.84% of Midtjylland’s total expected goals. This figure is 6.26 xG, ranking 2nd of all 36 teams that made the League Phase. The team in 1st place? Well, surprisingly it’s actually our very own Nottingham Forest, with a figure of 6.53 (representing 30.40% of xG) - but remember, Forest have played 2 extra games in the competition.

It’s a similar story if we look at shot attempts too - 40.21% of Midtjylland’s shots come from set piece situations. They’ve generated 9 shots from throw-ins, ranking 2nd in the competition. Forest’s figure here is 31.10%.

Digging a little deeper here specifically into corners, Midtjylland have created a shot from 47.6% of their corners - Forest on the other hand can beat that with a figure of 55.6%. What this suggests is that Forest can put a couple of decent routines together (and perhaps more importantly defend much better than they did in October), they might actually be able to beat Midtjylland at their own game!

The only one of these metrics that Midtjylland do not lead in, is the percentage of goal from set pieces. The only reason why is that they are beaten by Maccabi Tel Aviv - who scored 50% of their grand total of just 4 goals from set pieces.

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In reality, Midtjylland’s 8 goals from set pieces is the most in the Europa League Proper this season, 2 more than the next best team (Celtic), and 3 more than Forest’s 5.

In summary, it’s clear Forest simply have to defend set piece situations better than they did in October, and better than they have done in general this season.

In this respect the mandated return of Sels to the squad is a little bit of a worry, as statistically he is one of the worst goalkeepers in set piece situations in the Premier League since Forest were promoted. Sels only attempts to intervene 16% of the time when a cross enters a catchable/punchable zone - and even then his success rate is a very low 69%.

For this reason, Forest’s defenders really need to take it upon themselves to defend these situations. It’s why I suggested on the Forest Focus podcast after the Brighton game that Forest may look to move to a back 5 for the extra height that would give them to defend these exact situations.

Whilst I think ideally we’d see Forest play in a 4-2-3-1 and try to impose Pereira’s more fluid playing style on an opponent they should get the better of, I fear Forest are still pretty fragile mentally especially when they suffer setbacks in front of a nervy home crowd. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pereira stick with a back 5 and allow Jair Cunha to continue his recent good form if he is deemed fit enough.

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His appearance against Man City on Wednesday night increased Domínguez’s total Premier League minutes to 4,557, the equivalent of just over 50 full matches. He has spent just over half that time (2,359 minutes) playing in a midfield 2, pretty evenly split between playing on the left and right of centre.

Playing in a midfield pair was his most common position at Bologna too, but often in a Forest shirt I feel we’ve seen his best moments come when he’s used in different positions.

Since he’s joined we’ve seen him put in some great, hard-working performances all across the midfield, including at Anfield earlier this season on the left-wing. On Wednesday though, with Forest in what can most easily be described as a 5-3-2 (or perhaps 5-3-1-1) formation, Domínguez was asked to sit to the right of Ibrahim Sangaré.

If Forest were playing against a side with ‘traditional’ wingers and full backs, then Domínguez would have been asked to do a lot more work out wide (as we’ve seen previously when he’s been used on the wing), but because Man City’s width was provided by their full backs, he was able to concentrate on defending the width of the penalty box in Forest’s half.

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